The Effect Factor Analysis Of Growth Fluctuations Of Guangdong's Export Trade

Guangdong is a big and important export-oriented province in China. Export growth plays an important part on the growth of its economy. Taking a sweeping view of its export over years, we can find that it grew fast and fluctuated greatly. Steadily increasing of export in Guangdong must be affected by its fluctuations. For the export-oriented economy features of Guangdong, its external trade, especial export trade must be influenced by many different macroeconomics alternation elements home and abroad in distinct degree. The author attempts to probe into the elements that cause the increase of export trade and make the speed of its growth undulate and how deeply this elements affect. First, the author gives the proof of the affecting mechanism and interrelationship of export growth fluctuations theoretically and experimentally. Then, based on the combination of theory and data, a model about the growth and undulation of the Guangdong's export trade is educed by using the co-integration and test error correction mechanism that combine short-term effect and long-term equilibrium. The regress result of the empirical model is good. Finally, this paper sums up results of above-mentioned study and give the explanations of basic factors that affects Guangdong's export growth now and future. Based on these, the author will give policy suggestions for the steady development of Guangdong's export trade under the mentioned study.