Study On Estimates Of Embodied Carbon In Import And Export Of Guangdong Province And Structural Analysis Of The Factors

Import and export trades have practical significance to China’s economic development andoptimization of industrial structure. Depending on import and export trades, Guangdong Province hasachieved the rapid development of economy. However, environment in Guangdong Province isincreasingly becoming worse. For the serious resource consumption, the pollution to the environmentoffers a depressing picture.The thesis will develop around calculation about the carbon discharge of international trades andthe change of discharge under the background of low carbon economy. With the energy consumptiondata, the latest input-output table in year2002,2005,2007and2010of Guangdong Province and theinput-output model to calculate the discharge of each department. The article will evaluate thedischarge of carbon from the total output, final consumption and import and export trades of eachdepartment in the province annually, and then will analyze their rate, carbon discharge and the ratiobetween the aggregate output and value of import and export precisely. Next the article will use thefactor analytical methods to divide the reasons of carbon discharge into scale effect, structure effectand technical effect so that to explain the main reason of the increasing of the carbon discharge inGuangdong Province.The research results show that the total carbon discharge in Guangdong Province presents arising trend in successive years and it rises with the expansion of economy and trades. It rose from273.45MtC in2002to649.39MtC in2010, which has risen for2.37times. Carbon emission of exporttrade part has experienced the process which is from sharply increasing to steadily rising. In theprovince, almost1/3of all the production were used for exporting, which means that carbon emissionof export trade part is a significant element of the total carbon emission. During these4years, thecarbon discharge in import and export trades in the province has kept in a condition of net export. Ittook the pollution in and showed the trend of rapidly increasing. This showed that during these4years,the surplus trade in Guangdong has not only brought a big amount of benefits, but also has brought asurplus of carbon discharge. Also, the factor analysis result showed that the export trade scale effectplayed a crucial role in this problem. It was the major factor of the carbon discharge increase in theexport part, especially affected in the second industry. The part scale effect played was comparablylittle and it also functioned different in different industries. The progress of technology has improvedthe using efficiency of resources and it restrains the carbon discharge in trades in some degree.