Research On External Risk Of Supply Chain And The Losses For Mechinery Industry

With the incremental development of world economic integration and market globalization,supply chain management has been the important management mode and used widely in world. As the same time, this kind of management mode greatly enhangcing the firm's competence as well bringing some new problems.With the frequent occurrence of hazard events in supply chain,and incurred serious results, how to recognize and evaluate these hazard events, and resolve these problems finally, which become the urgent problems for node enterprises in supply chain. And the supply chain risk management becomes an important direction of the supply chain research currently.In this paper,firstly,the background of the research is introduced,by the way,the overseas and domestic study situation on supply chain risk management is reviewed;Secondly,some conceptions such as the risk,risk management,the supply chain management and the basic theory of risk management in supply chain are introduced;Thirdly,based on the comprehensive analysis of the key factors of external risk in the supply chain,an evaluation model are set up with the method of the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation based on the rough set and the fuzzy set theory,and analyze the effect on the node manufacturing enterprise caused by external risk in the supply chain.Furthermore,the losses of the node manufacturing enterprise caused by external risk in the supply chain are analyzed;At last,based on the analysis of external risk property and the operation mode of supply chain in manufacturing field,it established a forecasting model of direct losses, and the model can be extended in many aspects.