The Analysis On Oil Price Fluctuation And The Study On Oil Pricing Mechanism In China

Oil is the foremost basic energy source, chemical raw materials and strategic commodities. Not only for the oil producing and consuming countries have a powerful role in supporting economic development, but also to the development of national economies,raise the people's standard of living and national security is closely linked. Oil market has been recognized by the academic and business sectors of the market are complex and unpredictable. Fluctuations in oil prices is one of its most unique risks. The volatility of international oil prices, the domestic political and economic situation played a pivotal role. Consequently, the government has tried to control and influence international oil pricing mechanism, to low-cost access to the international oil resources to guarantee the stability of the domestic oil market. With China's rapid economic growth, demand for oil is rapidly increasing, a substantial increase in oil import dependency. China has become the world's second largest after the United States, a net importer of oil. Depth analysis of the fluctuations in the price of oil and further study of China's oil pricing mechanism have great theoretical and practical significance for effective response strategies, and to ensure that our economic stability,rapid,continued growth.This article includes the foreword and the main text.The foreword comprises chapter 1 and chapter 2. It introduces the background,theme,signification,basic disciplines,analytical approaches main idea and structure of this article.As a backdrop,the function of forword is helping to give elementary impression of the article.There are two parts in the main text.Part 1,or chapter 3,is the introduction of the oil-price fluctuations.First,the article recalls seven drastic changes in international oil prices since the 1970s,notes the trend in the international oil prices in recent years, analyzes the world oil supply and demand curve of the short-term and long-term through world oil prices.Second,the article makes a research on the actuality of oil supply and demand in China,analyzes China's oil consumption and imports from the perspective of international trade situation.Through the collection and collation of data,the article studys the trend of China's oil import dependency in recent years. Third,the article analyzes the impact of the oil price.The impact of the oil price will be divided into six factors:oil production,oil consumption,alternative products,inventory change and social economic fators.Finally,this paper construt the oil price forecasting model on the basis of the gray system theory.Rational analysis of the first part reduces the significance of the establishment of the oil pricing mechanism,introduces the study of the oil princing mechanism.Part 2 comprises chapter 4 and chapter 5.Chapter 4 introduces the international oil pricing mechanism,first.The sructure of international oil market determine the international oil pricing mechanism.In Asia,Singapore putin's price is the settlement price of oil trading. Chapter 4 introduces the current China's oil pricing mechanism,second.This part analyzes the formation,characteristics,conduction mode and effect of China's oil pricing mechanism. China will gradually establish domestic oil prices in line with the international market oil pricing mechanism. the actual implementation is that China's crude oil prices achieve to converge directly with the international market price and China's refined oil prices directly with the international market has not been fully realized converge.So far,China has gone through three phases and twice qualitative changes on the road of perfecting the formation mechanism of oil prices. The reform of the formation mechanism of oil prices changed the domestic crude oil and refined oil prices in the past, the cost of production for basic pricing, domestic oil prices gradually converge with the international market and comply with the requirements of the development of China's socialist market economy and the characteristics of refined oil market.Chapter 4 analyzse the conduction of the current China's oil pricing mechanism,finally.The article use two ways to study the conduction mechanism that international oil prices impact on domestic prices and analyzes the effect of these two pathways from the point of view of the industrial chain. on the compact from Chinese actual oil pricing mechanism. Now, the problem of Chinese actual oil pricing mechanism has appeared gradually by intruduction of Chapter 4. Chapter 5 against China's current oil pricing mechanism for a detailed analysis of defects, In light of these problems, the paper puts forward several suggestions about Chinese actual oil pricing mechanism.