The Research Of Energy Demand And Supply Forecast Model Of China Based On System Dynamics

With the rapid development of China’s economy, energy and population, energyshortage becomes a major bottleneck to the high-speed development of our country, and alsohas brought great negative effects on our country’s ecological environment. There are mutualinfluence and mutual restriction among energy, economy, environment, population. Torealize the sustainable development of human society, it must coordinate our country’senergy, economy, environment and population, and understand China’s current situation ofenergy supply and demand, so as to make a significant decision in view of the energyshortage problem, so as to provide reliable basis for the further development of our country.On the basis of related theory and prediction model of energy supply and demand,combining with China’s present situation of energy supply and demand, the research set upChina’s energy supply system dynamics model and has carried on the simulation analysisabout the energy consumption in China. The research uses the changeable weightcombination forecasting model to forecast China’s primary energy production. Finally, theresearch analyzes the gap of China’s energy consumption and production.Firstly, the research has carried on the analysis and prediction about the indicators ofenergy subsystem, economy subsystem, environment subsystem, population subsystem, andthe flow diagram and system dynamics equation is obtained. By simulating China’s energysupply system dynamics model, the forecast results of China’s energy are obtained. Secondly,the research uses the gray system GM (1,1) forecast model, the curve regression forecastingmodel, the constant weight combination forecasting model and the changeable weightcombination forecasting model to forecast China’s coal production, oil production, naturalgas production. It shows that the changeable weight combination forecasting model has thehighest prediction accuracy, coal production occupies the largest proportion, next arehydropower and nuclear power, natural gas, oil. Finally, the research analyzes the gap ofChina’s energy consumption and production from2013to2030.According to the above research conclusion, it proposes that we should intensify our efforts to optimize the industrial structure adjustment, reduce the proportion of industry,construction and develop the third industry, to ensure the sustainable supply of energy inChina and to realize the coordinated development of economy and energy. By acceleratingthe speed of technological progress and reducing the energy consumption intensity, the gapof China’s energy consumption and production will be reduced greatly. It is inevitablestrategic choice for the sustainable development of energy.