Research On Price Fluctuation And Prediction Of Changsha Real Estate

Following the housing system reform, real estate of our country and the estate industry in the not too long time experienced four investment development periods,And each period the price rase fast.In the lastest few years, our country real estate industry went out regulatory periods and became the region economy the new point of growth and the consumption hot spot.Along with the development of ecnomic, as a heavy city, Changsha's real estate industry became more prosper.In 20 years of life development courses, Changsha real estate industry appeared its own characteristic, under the national macroeconomic regulation and control, the estate market order consummated day after day, but the market is not an effective market, and each kind of question finally may be displayed by the price fluctuation.At present there are few studies of fluctuations and prediction about Changsha real estate price This article attempted in this aspect to make some beneficial attempts.The full text is divided into six chapters :In the first chapter we studied the cultural heritage of domestic and international about price fluctuations and prediction on the real estate, expounded the thesis topics background and practical significance; In the Chapter II reviewed the development stage of real estate , and gave the statistical analysis about real estate of Changsha; In the Chapter III comprehensive analyzed the main factors about real estate prices in Changsha City; In the Chapter IV established a scientific system of indicators,and from different points of view using econometric methods constructed price fluctuations model-spider model ,linear regression model, cointegration model and the impulse response function; In the V chapter ARIMA, GM (1, 1) and ARIMA-GANN model were set up, then predict the prices of real estate in Changsha.In the Chapter VI gave a full text of the summary and a reasonable proposal for the development of Changsha real estate in the future.This article main conclusion and innovation points can be listed as follows: (1) It established the target system which reflected the fluctuation of the Changsha real estate price; (2) from the different angles it constructed measurement econometric models which reflected Changsha real estate price's fluctuation, and carried on the real diagnosis analysis, and studied the primary factors which affected the Changsha real estate price and the influence of various factors on the price; (3) based on ARIMA model and GM(1,1) model, with artificial neural network theory it has constructed a new ARIMA-GANN model and has predicted the real estate price of Changsha, finally indicated in the ARIMA-GANN model the prediction precision is the highest.The achievements of this paper have certain valuable reference to other cities studying the relation between the house price and their influence factors and the prediction of the real estate price. The future research might be targeted at such aspects as the optimization .of the indicator system, the selection of the model function, the expanse of the sample data, the analysis of classify and factor, the combination of the rational city scale, so as to make the result of the research to have the more extensive leading meaning.