Land Use Dynamic Change And Prediction Of Neijiang City

Land use dynamic change forms major aspect and hotspot of global change on both regional and global scales. As urban is the region where the human behavior has effect on nature landscape ecological system most frequently and acutely. Neijiang city was selected as the research object, which was a typical regional case Of central hill district of Sichuan basin. The paper made best use of the established database of present land use situation and took it as the data source. Based on analyzing and appraising the current land use, firstly this paper adopted the dynamic change models to analyze the spatio-temporal change of land use, then seeked the dynamic change law of land use; secondly used mathematical statistical method to analyze the regional land change driving force on social and economy aspects; thirdly applied Markov model to predict the tendency of the land use change of Neijiang city in future, so as to offer basis to sustainably make use of regional land and revise the land use general plan. The conclusions of this research were as follows:(1) The main current land use structure in Neijiang city were cultivated land and the residential areas and industrial and mining's land, and the ratio of cultivated land reached 47.20%. The land use ratio was much higher than average level of the whole province, reaching 79.24%, and the reserve land resource accounted for 20.76% of the whole area.(2) The quantity change analyses of land use comprised extent, speed and matrix of land use diversion of land use. The land use pattern had changed by a relatively large margin in Neijiang city from 1997 to 2005. The main tendency of this change is that with remarkable reduction of cultivated land that decreased by 9936.11hm~2, unutilized land and water area, while garden land, forest land that increased by 7032.23 hm~2, grass land and building land increased notably. And during the research time, the speed of land use type change reduced from garden land, traffic land, forest land, residential areas and industrial and mining's land, cultivated land, unutilized land to water area. The main trend of general dynamic degree changed from progressive increase to degression. From the analyses of land use diversion matrix, we know resulting in the quantity change of land use was that cultivated land being occupied by construction,adjustment in structure of agriculture and the implementation of the national reforesting formerly cultivated land policy in Neijiang city.(3)The analyses of change degree of the land use included the degree of landscape departure, the ratio of land use and the degree of land use.The result indicates that with the development of city and increase in country economy, the ratio of land use improved gradually. Neijiang Downtown was in the stage of adjustment, but the degree of land use of the whole city were in the stage of development.Because of implementation of protecting cultivated land policy,this trend of change is unnotable,so Neijiang city was in the stage of steady development.(4)There were comparatively obvious regional differences in land use.The change of land use was notable in Longchang county, where the comparative ratio of land types was bigger than in Neijiang city,and the comparative ratio of water area is 18.04%.(5)Spatial pattern difference analysis included the diversity analysis, convergence analysis, location analysis and landscape analysis.Results showed:the diversity extent of land use was high collectively;the convergence extent of land use was much higher,so land types had more important location meaning in different areas. The intensity of land use for human strengthened gradually.(6)Using factor analysis,we concluded that the population growth, rapidly development of industry and urbanization were the main driving forces of land use from 1997 to 2005 in Neijiang city.(7)The trend prediction of the land use and changes showed:the cultivated land, unutilized land,garden land and forest land in Neijiang city still would show a tendency to reduce within one period in the future. The cultivated land reduced the range still for being largest. Residential areas and industrial and mining's land,traffic land would present the state of increase, residential areas and industrial and mining's land at the largest range among them, and the change of water area would not to be strong.