Research On Dynamic Change And Trend Prediction Of Land Use In Meishan City

Land use/cover change not only changes people's way of life,but also relates to the spatial structure,ecological environment and economic development trend of a city or region,including biological and abiotic factors with land resources as the carrying capacity.There is a complex linkage between land use structure and driving forces.Exploring the process mechanism,trend and law of dynamic change of land use is conducive to better understanding the evolution of human living space.Meishan city is an important node city in the Yangtze river economic belt and an important "rice town" in southwest China.As the hinterland of the economic circle around chengdu,the regional infrastructure construction of cities,roads,energy and so on is speeding up,inevitably deepening the contradiction between people and land and the pressure of ecological environment space.Under the background of accelerated land space planning,the dynamic change trend of land use is explored to provide reference for relevant land resource management and control,which can promote the sustainable development of meishan city and consolidate the construction of minjiang river ecological barrier.Meishan city,based on the 2000,2010,2018,three land use types of information,analysis the trends in land use dynamic change and its driving force factor,through the MCE-meishan city,CA-Markov model to predict the future land use structure,discusses the environmental effect of land use change brought about by the,meishan city,eventually condenses into a 26 years of land use dynamic change trend line,with national spatial development thinking of meishan city sustainable development of land use measures were also suggested.The main results include the following:(1)land use dynamic change analysis of meishan city from 2000 to 2018.The proportion of cultivated land,grassland and other land has been decreasing,while the construction land,forest land and water area have been increasing.In the past years,the land use degree and efficiency are constantly improved,and there are obvious differences among districts and counties.Dongpo district and pengshan district have the highest land use degree.The fragmentation of landscape pattern is intensifying,and the landscape shape and composition tend to be complicated and diversified.(2)analysis of driving mechanism of land use change.Arable land and construction land are most suitable for areas with slope less than 10°,grassland and forest land are suitable for areas with high slope,and other land and water areas tend to be distributed in areas with low slope.The convenience of transportation and the distance from the water system have certain attraction to all areas,and the construction land and farmland change most dramatically.The administrative center has obvious exclusion to cultivated land,forest land and grassland.Economic,population and policy factors all have obvious influence on the change of land type,which can promote the change of land type rapidly in a short period of time.(3)land use change prediction based on CA-Markov model.The suitability atlas of each land class was constructed by MCE module,and the land use status of2018 was simulated.The Kappa coefficient was 0.8563,which could pass the accuracy verification.Based on this,the land use status in 2026 under natural mode and ecological environment protection mode is forecasted,and it is found that there are differences in construction land,forest land and cultivated land under the two modes.The common point is that the cultivated land area is decreasing rapidly,while the construction land is expanding.(4)discussion on the environmental effects of land use change.Meishan city,2000-2026,the ecosystem services value of land use overall declining,ecologically sensitive index in slowly rising,to bring the negative ecological contribution rate of construction land is bigger,ecological risk index is rising year by year,ecological protection mode can slow the speed of negative environmental effects,but cannot prevent the occurrence of negative environmental effects.(5)Suggestions on sustainable land use development in meishan city.Combining with the analysis results of the dynamic change of land use and the trend of environmental effect,this paper puts forward some concrete Suggestions from the aspects of urban construction space,agricultural development space and ecological space,in order to promote the coordinated development of meishan's economy and ecological environment.