Research On The Appraisal And Prevention Of China's Real-estate Financial Risk

Nowadays, real-estate industry with high relevance has been the pillar industry to boost China's national economic, absorb employees and improve citizen's living condition, which is growing with unprecedented rate. The real practice of foreign economic development has fully proved: as a capital-intensive industry, the exploitation and business operation of real-estate industry frequently complements promotes with the financing service provided by financial industry. Currently, China's capital market is still not prosperous, capital raising demands of real-estate industry is mainly provided by banking system, with the rapid growth of real-estate industry, the inter-connection between banking industry and real-estate industry is being continuously improved. The developing loan of real-estate industry provided by China's financial institutions increases from 162.87 billion in 1998 to 379.89 billion in 2003, annual average growth rate is 3%, proceeds from real-estate credit loan has been the major component of banking income, and as the banking credit loan supports the prosperity of China's real-estate industry, the handsome risk is also accumulated, once the trend taking negative impacts on real-estate industry occurs, investors, developers of real-estate industry and banks should undertake different lever risk, especially banking industry providing fund support for real-estate industry, the break of fund chain also should motivate systematic financial crisis and harm financial security, even whole national economy.The research scale of foreign and domestic academic circle on financial risk of real-estate industry is still unified, and the research on birthing mechanism, performing mode and risk alarming system, etc. should be deepened, so under the background of constructing harmonious society posed by central government, it has important theoretical and practical significances to take systematic research on the performing modes and birthing mechanism of China's current real-estate market and reveal the huge threats to China's economic development brought by real-estate financial risk and pursue the countermeasures to control and diversify real-estate financial risk, also such research should benefit the health development of China's real-estate market, fulfill citizens' housing consuming demands and keep the safety of financial system.Guided by real-estate financial risk theory and based on the general method of risk management this paper, according to the real practice of China's real-estate financial risk and using international real-estate financial risk management as reference, this paper proposes the countermeasures to control China's real-estate financial risk. The paper is mainly divided into three parts, the first one (Chapter 2), general theoretical analysis on real-estate financial risk, mainly introduce the general theory on real-estate financial risk to ascertain the research objects, clearly define the concept of real-estate finance and financial risk and explain the performing modes, characteristic and birthing mechanism, which gives the theoretical support for the following analysis on China's real-estate financial risk. The second part (Chapter3), real practice of China's real-estate financial risk and birthing mechanism, through historical investigation of China's real-estate finance, this part ascertains the practice of China's current real-estate finance. Pursues the existing problems and reveals the performing modes and birthing causes. The third part (Chapter 4, Chapter5), China's real-estate financial risk management According to the performing modes and birthing mechanism of China's real-estate financial risk, construct real-estate financial risk alarming system to timely take effective measures to avoid the shock brought by financial risk to China's finance and economy. At the same time, aiming at China's existing real-estate financial risk, this part proposes that we should improve the risk management of commercial banks, strengthen macro control and quicken financial innovation to diversify and transfer real-estate financial risk and cultivate sound real-estate financial ecological environment, which should inevitably facilitate the benign development of China's real-estate finance.The main innovation of this paper is based on the commercial banks perspective to determine the real estate financial risk warning system, which use AHP to determine the index's weight and establish an integrated real estate financial risk warning index as an effective means for management real estate financial risk; The main shortcoming of this paper is that the causes of risk have yet to be analyzed in depth. Simultaneous quantitative indicators of early warning settings subjective relatively strong, which may affect the use of early warning system, Suitability yet to be tested in practice.