Theory And Empirical Study On The Problems Of Land Conversion Under The Condition Of Uncertainty

Land conversion is an inevitable phenomenon in the process of urbanization in China and it is the result of competition of land use. China is a country with more people but less land, and in recent years, the problems of the ecological environment, food security and other problems have become increasingly prominent due to land conversion. In the period of rapid urbanization, how to properly coordinate the conflict between "food" and "construction" has been a common concern.The paper first introduces the research background, reviews the literature on land conversation in china and abroad in recent years, then gives some brief comments on them and describes the main content this paper will elaborate.Land conversion is intuitive result of the city development. The general empirical results show that a significant positive correlation exists between land conversion and urbanization. This chapter studies the relationship from the horizontal conversion. The methodology of empirical analysis is mainly used and the theoretical basis is inverted "U" curve. It means that with the development of cities, land conversion experiences a process from fast to slow. Using the panel data of Shenzhen,Shanghai,Suzhou,Jinan which with higher urbanization and wide time to certifies the result again.Food security is one of the problems mostly concerned and it is related to social stability and development. If population growth rate and per capita income rate don't change, land conversion doesn't have an impact on the demand for food, but in long term, whether land conversion has an impact on food demand is depending on which is bigger. In the short term, conversation land will have an impact on food supply, but in the long term, , the pressure will be alleviated.The special of China's land system determines the uncertainty of the property of the land, the existed literatures have showed that the uncertainty of land property rights has an impact on farmers'long-term investment and enhance the uncertainty of their future expected receipts, and thus will their enthusiasm of protecting farmland. Based on this viewpoint, this paper consider uncertainty as the driving factors of land conversion, using the expected future earnings to quantify the uncertainty, and sets up an econometric model with uncertainty theory.Based on previous studies, this paper take driving factors of land conversion into two categories: one category is objective factors; the other is subjective factors. This chapter mainly analyses the impact position of the driving factors systematically from theory and this supply the basis for setting up the econometric model. under the condition of uncertainty.The results of the model shows that the impact of other driver factors on land conversion is consistent with the theory expect for the land market. The impact of uncertainty of expected receipts on land conversion is the largest, and whether the land market has a positive impact on land conversion requires specific analysis.Finally this paper recommends corresponding policies.