Analysis And Forecast China Regional Auto Marketing

Forecasting vehicle market volume is a complex work, But it is very important to every automobile factory. Market share target and output structure depend on market volume. This article depicts the forecast model by regional demand actuality and infection factor; Get the result of every regional market volume in 2006.This article carves countrywide up 5 kinds by regional difference principia. The article confirms the model's aspect depend on that individual GDP and retain volume every kilo people follow the rule of "S "curve. "S "curve describe the new production and new technical's increasing process; Individual GDP is the important guide line for confirming the retain volume every kilo people.After confirms the forecast model, I adjust the key modulus: Townie ratio; Vehicle private rate; price index; Economy imbalance index and other modulus. Form maneuverability, I predigest the model. The mostly data is register data; individual GDP data; Townie ratio.By adjust short factor; For example: oil price; Taxi update; Consume credit; renovate the model.At last I get the result of forecasts volume at every regional, by comparing the true data show that the model is trusty and nicety. Aim at market forecasting means is less because china auto market is in developing phase; The article discuss the new way that establish forecast model.