Study On Market Demand Forecast Of Cigarette Products In Dehong County, Yunnan Province

Municipal cigarette and tobacco companies are the main body of China’s tobacco industry, primarily in charge of the local cigarette market operation and management, and the initiators for developing the work of "organizing goods resources according to customer orders" as well as the end of this work in the internal circle of tobacco industry. How to accurately predict the market demand for cigarettes, how to organize the product supplies to meet market demand have become some of the key contents of municipal cigarette and tobacco companies marketing efforts in the coming period.This paper selects Dehong Cigarette and Tobacco Enterprise as the object pf study. First, the paper analyzes and organizes the annual cigarette sales data of Dehong cigarette market in the uears pf 2006-2015, obtains the Dehong market cigarette sales laws over nearly 10 years, and comes to a conclusion for cigarette consumption in Dehong cigarette market, by combining it with a present cigarettes consumption environment analysis and the market focus of the new normal situation in cigarette market development. Second, on the basis of checking and analyzing the current relative forecast sales demand documents of Dehong Cigarette and Tobacco Enterprise, the paper proposes that there are problems in the existing demand-supply forecasting mechanisms and methods. After studying these problems, and selecting demand-supple forecast mode reconstruction as the breakthrough point, by the means of studying the reconstruction, checking and proving the annual, semi-annual and monthly demand-supply forecast mode, the paper proposes that the annual forecast mode is double-log mode while semi-annual and monthly forecast modes are both seasonal index forecast mode. Finally, according to the existing problems in the demand-supply forecast mechanisms and methods of Dehong Cigarette and Tobacco Enterprise, and based on the construction of demand-supply forecast mode, as a starting point for improving the working efficiency and accuracy of market sales demand-supply forecasts, the paper puts forward a quantitative and qualitative prediction module as market demand forecasting mechanism. At the same time, according to the proposed market demand forecast mechanism, the paper further proposes optimizations to the related workflow.