| Scientific and technological innovation projects are of great importance to the national competitive power but also of great risk. The most urgent problem in Chinese enterprises'development is how to identify and analyze the project risk systematically. With the purpose of providing suggestions for the risk management and control in scientific and technological innovation projects, an analytic framework of risk management in scientific and technological innovation projects is developed based on previous literature. Furthermore, based on the characteristics of scientific and technological innovation projects, the characteristics of risks in scientific and technological innovation projects and the key factors of risk control are analyzed from four aspects: key risk factors identification, risk generation mechanism, static risk assessment and dynamic risk simulation, using qualitative together with quantitative analysis and theory together with positive analysis method. The innovative research fruits are as follows:The analytic framework for the risk management this dissertation puts forward shows that, in order to describe the characteristics of risks in scientific and technological innovation projects, it is necessary to explain the risk generation mechanism based on key risk factors identification, and study the dynamic change of risks quantitatively based on static risk assessment. Hence there should have risk impact mechanism analysis in risk identification and dynamic risk characteristics analysis in the quantitative analysis of risk characteristics, which can establish an organic linkage among risk identification, risk assessment and risk control.A new risk measure is presented in this research, which is a relative quantity and defined as the expected loss of value in the required target return divided by the maximum expected loss of value when the probability of failure is guaranteed under the standardized distribution of investment return. The definition is promising and superior to the traditional risk measure in that it readily makes the comparison of different investments be fairly easy and convenient regardless of their currency denominations or other measurement bases.The concept of risk sensitivity is put forward and analyzed in the dissertation, which estimates the influential effect each risk factor to the others and to the whole projects. We can provide suggestions for whether terminate the project or not through the quantitative analyses of risk sensitivity. |
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