Study On Investment Risk Control Model In Supply Chain Background Based On Optimization Theory

With the development of network information technology and rapid globalization process, the environment of company's supply chain operation has been undergoing great changes and supply chain management has gradually become the focus in academic and business field.The network competition has been much fiercer under the global market economy. The competition has gradually changed from the original single companies to the supply chain field. Meanwhile the expand of the supply chain in global scope leads to its uncertainty, thus it encounters more risk factors than before, and the management of the supply chain risk has become a new and pressing issue at present.However the research about the management of the supply chain risk is relatively rare from the investment risk avoidance aspect. Although some valuable conclusions about risk warning in advance has been made from the exiting risk research form the point of risk identification and early-warning, and there are some researches about the selection of supply chain partners and facility locations. However, there is still a lack of models and researches about logistics project risk investment. All this provides a brand-new issue about supply chain risk management.Based on the above analysis, this topic has been chosen as the main research subject in this thesis. Through analyzing and summarizing the existing supply chain risk management research, the author clearly proposes the research content about it and further chooses demand uncertainty and rate changes as the main research contents.Through analyzing the main logistics service vendor's investment plan about operation ability, the investment decision-making and risk control model have been proposed and further gotten explanation about model optimization strategies been made. Finally through AutoMod logistics simulation experiment platform the main logistics service vendor's basic investment risk control model have been experimented and analyzed. The solution accounts for the validation the model. The follows aspects are the relative specific procedure:This thesis first reviews the definition about the supply chain and supply chain risk management, then studies supply chain risk identification and controlling research at present, next analyzes the selecting standard about supply chain risk, thus considers the supply chain investment risk control as the subjects of this thesis, and the uncertainty of the investment plan's operating ability as the main research subject.Then, based on the existing controlling model under the random factors the investment planning problem about the logistics operators'operating ability has been proposed, and the basic investment planning and risk controlling two-stages plan model have been proposed based on the risk factors in the investment procedure. Meanwhile this model has been extended with the account of the rate change factors. This thesis introduces the solving strategies about the model and further provides the employment of the rapid coverage and SAA-Sample Average Approximation strategy for the two-stage plan model, and thus analyzes solution procedure in detail.Finally this thesis proposes the basic investment plan simulation model, undergo simulation experiments, and get the optimizing solution to the model. Through introducing AutoMod logistics simulation experiment platform, the two-stages planning model simulation experiments have been undergone based on the logistics basic investment planning and risk controlling. Through employing AutoMod Stat analysis tool, the model's optimization, capacity and transportation decision-making have been optimizing analyzed. Through the analysis of the basic investment planning and risk controlling model, the validity of the proposed model and the feasibility about solution results have been tested.