The Research On Investment Risk Assessment Of Jiaozhou Agricultural Cold Chain Logistics Center

In recent years, China’s logistics industry maintain a rapid growth, which has become an important part of the national economy,the ability of the service has significantly improved.In 2013,the total social logistics reached 197.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.1 times compared with 2005, the logistics industry accounts for 6.8 percent of gross domestic product. With the development of the logistics industry, agricultural chain logistics construction has received increasing attention. China’s logistics industry long-term development plan (2014-2020 years) classify the logistics zone project and agricultural engineering as the key logistics engineering, and pointed out:focus on the development of agricultural products, agricultural supplies, cold chain logistics park and other professional logistics zone project; strengthening cold fresh agricultural products chain logistics facilities, perfect cold chain logistics network. Because investment in building agricultural cold chain logistics center has a one-time investment, long capital recovery cycle characteristics, and therefore for the investment risk of the cold chain logistics center of agricultural products, we must use a scientific method to evaluate and make prevention.In this paper, we study on the investment risk Assessment of Jiaozhou agricultural Cold Chain Logistics Center, build investment risk evaluation indicator system, based on A Fuzzy Matter-element Analysis Model to evaluate the investment risk of Jiaozhou agricultural Cold Chain Logistics Center, and make appropriate risk prevention and response measures, have certain theoretical and practical significance.First,we analysis the development of agricultural environment of Jiaozhou cold chain logistics center, focus on the development conditions of Jiaozhou agricultural cold chain logistics center, and use gray forecasting model to analyze the market demand, and thus screening the factors of investment risk. Based on Scientific and operational principles,we build the investment risk assessment indicator system of Jiaozhou agricultural cold chain logistics center, including the natural environmental risks,social policy risk, financial capital risk,market operational risk, the construction and implementation management risk, including quantify some index values and the hierarchy of risk;Based on Fuzzy Matter-element Analysis Model,we build an investment risk Assessment model of Jiaozhou agricultural chain logistics center, define the classical domains and domain objects section element matrix, using entropy method to determine the weight of each index, Concluded that: Jiaozhou agricultural Cold Chain Logistics Center is in a good investment condition overall; evaluation results are different in types of risk, we need to focus on preventing the impact of individual risk types during project construction:natural environmental conditions get low risk; social policy environmental conditions are good, the risk is very low; financial risks is low; the market operating is in good condition, which is with low risk;The status of implementation of project is in general, which has moderate risk, and need to prevent;The operation and management of project is poor, which is the key factor to prevent;Finally, against the results of investment risk assessment of Jiaozhou agricultural cold chain logistics center, combined with the actual conditions of project construction, we proposed some risk prevention and response measures.The innovation points of paper is:Building the investment risk assessment index system of Jiaozhou agricultural Cold Chain Logistics Center, which including natural environmental risks, social policy risk, financial capital risk, market operational risk, the construction and implementation risk,management risk, and quantitative the qualitative indicators; based on risk theory,we build a Fuzzy Matter-element Analysis Model to implement Jiaozhou agricultural cold chain logistics center investment risk assessment, which can achieve the overall investment risk and all types of risk assessment for the project and support the prevention decision making.