| Housing problem, as the key problem, is essential to people's life, to the sustained and rapid development of economy as well as to the social stability. And the core of the housing problem is the estate price problem, In recent years, the estate price in China, especially in some big or media-sized cities, rises so fast even under the strengthening macro-controlling from the government, which makes the ordinary wage earners impossible to afford it. Premier Wen Jia bao is in ten session of National People's Congress fifth conference government service report proposed explicitly must strengthen the supervising and managing regulation suppression real estate price excessively quickly rise.Changsha city, whose GDP and per capita GDP keep growing very fast, has a sustained and rapid growth of economy, which provides a wonderful platform to the development of the real estate industry. It has been developing since the first half-year of 2007, and reached a deal of the commercial residential building at 3278 yuan/m' on average, higher by 14.35% on an annual basis. Among them, the average price of the commercial residence is 3054 yuan/m2, higher by 19.07% on an annual basis. But what maybe the main factor for the rising house prices? Is it too high, too low or just natural? If it is too high, is there any measure that the government can take to control it? It is worthwhile to analyze the main factor of the rising house prices and make an estimate for the estate price in Changsha city. Since such study is not much, so this article will focus on this problem.The full text is divided into five chapters: In the first chapter we system inspected domestic and foreign about the real estate price research aspect achievement,and has comprehensively grasped the related real estate price research front tendency, has laid the foundation for the present paper research. Second chapter systematically analyzes the Changsha real estate industry development background, and makes the thorough statistical analysis to its development present situation; The third chapter analysis affects the Changsha real estate price the primary factor. In the fourth chapter establishment gray associated house price appraisal model, and does the real diagnosis research by this to the Changsha real estate price quality synthetic evaluation. Fifth chapter makes the comprehensive subtotal on the full text, and put forward the constructive proposal according to the research results to the government macroeconomic regulation and control measure. This article main conclusion and innovation points can be listed as follows: (1) It studied the primary factors that affected the Changsha real estate price and the influence of various factors on the price; (2) using gray associated house price appraisal model evaluate estate price for 2003-2006 years in Changsha; (3) Has obtained the appraisal model target weight using the analytic hierarchy (AHP) method;(4) According to the research results, proposed carries on the macroeconomic regulation and control to the Changsha real estate industry the feasible countermeasure.The achievements of this paper have certain valuable reference to other cities studying the relation between the house price and their influence factors and the real estate price quality synthetic evaluation. The future research might be targeted at such aspects as the optimization of the indicator system, the selection of the model function, the expanse of the sample data, so as to make the result of the research to have the more extensive leading meaning. |
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