Study On Dynamic Impact Of Port Of Shanghai On Regional Economy

Evaluating the impact of port on regional economy is an important task all over the world now. Especially with the scale-up and the function strengthened of the port, the development of regional economy has more and more strict request on the port. Therefore, analyzing and identifying the contribution of a port to regional economy is very necessary.The present quantified method of the impact of port on regional economy is still controversial in China, the approaches and indexes are all traditional, there's no well-developed theory in this field until present. We can learn the contribution of the port development by researching its impacts on regional economy. It can give important theoretical foundations and decision-making supports for the authorities to constitute rational and scientific development strategies. This is also very essential to adopt sound shipping policies guiding the port industry developing healthy and thriving constantly.The paper makes use of the representative port of Shanghai to demonstrate the dynamic impact of the port on regional economy, the main work are as follows:The second chapter makes a qualitative analysis of the impact of the port on regional economy. It makes a thorough analysis of the mechanism of impact of port on regional economy,The third chapter avails of Co-integration model to analyze the long-term impact of Shanghai port to regional economy,there is Co-integration relationship between the throughput of Shanghai port and the economic growth of Shanghai, namely long-term equilibrium relationship. Co-integration relationship exists between GDP of Shanghai and foreign trade throughput and domestic trade throughput respectively, and owes different control power.The fourth chapter introduces VAR model and VEC and the test approach-Granger causality test, and introduces impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the short-term impact of Shanghai port on the economy growth of Shanghai. Variance decomposition shows different contribution of foreign trade throughput and domestic trade throughput to the dynamic change of economic growth of Shanghai, furthermore, the main fluctuation of LNGDP mainly comes from itself, and LNFTT has more important impact on LNGDP. In terms of the inherent relationship between the development of port and the development of Shanghai, they have mutual Granger causalities.The thesis also analyzes the spillover impact of Shanghai port on regional economy. At last but not the least,on the basis of the quanlified analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestion to resolve the main bottleneck of Shanghai port which will support the desion-making to the relative authorities.