The Research To Financial Crisis-Predicting System In Our Domestic Companies

Every enterprise faces financial risk during its production and management in the market economy .During the development of the market economy, it's more possible for Chinese enterprise to meet bankrupty and other financial puzzledom in their operation .it's more and more important to find an efficient way to manage the financial risk, especially to the public company .if the company is in financial trouble ,it might lead to serious results ,so it is important to gauge financial risk and set up warning model.At present,the research to financial crisis-predicting system both home and abroad is mostly the research of a certain kind of enterprise crisis-predicting model. In addition, only a few enterprises establish the financial crisis-redicting system and their main problems are lacking the theoretical guide. In the first place ,the author introduces the intesions and characteristic of financial risk .and has described the function and the necessity of financial risk management .Based on the achievements of the predecessors devoted to the research of this field, this paper makes a thorough discussion on relative theories of how to establish a financial crisis-predicting system and boldly designs financial mechanics of organizing, running and responsibility system.We make a further study on the system with a method of quantitative and qualitative analysis by presenting practical example system.Based on the analysis of the real conditions of domestic companies and the con- vincing index ,The multi-variable linear function models have been esta- blished to evaluate and forecast the company financial risk .The validity of this method is proven by analyzing the company's stochastic chosen real data. The results shows the method has the favorable evaluation and fo- recast abilities of company financial status and risk degrees on condition that only the published data of company can be used.Therefore, the enterprise can avoid the damage that might be caused by the crisis.