Application Of Monte Carlo Simulation In Mining Investment Risk Analysis

Our country has a long history on the aspect of the development and utilization of mineral resources. Long times ago, human beings had learned the development and utilization of mineral resources, and produced all kinds of tools.In the last five thousand years, the contribution of mining is immeasurable to Chinese culture, and Chinese people survive. Since modern times, the mining industry has made an important contribution to create social wealth, improve the economic benefit and promote the modernization and industrialization and strengthen the national power. For investors, however, the risk exists in any engineering, and mining industry is no exception. As a large comprehensive engineering, mining engineering there must be a lot of risk, especially the part of the internal and external environment is not fully understood in advance, this has a great impact on the investment decision of mining and the mining development cycle is long, the investment amount is huge, it is hard to change the plan, the various parameters will be in a dynamic change process.As a result, for many mining enterprises, economic evaluation and analysis of the investment risk are needed in different stages, to provide scientific decision basis for investors. So, the technical and economic evaluation of mine construction project, investment risk analysis of mining is very practical significant. In this paper, in reference to the literature and on the basis of predecessors’research results, the main work is as follows:1, According to the characteristics of the mine construction project, this paper introduces the common economic effect evaluation index, the calculation method of each index in this paper, contrast and analyze the technical and economic evaluation methods for mine construction projects, then introduces the technical and economic evaluation of the commonly used mathematical methods.2, Focuses on the principle of uncertainty of mining method, as well as the specific steps, monte carlo simulation method in the probability analysis is the main research and application method in this paper.3, Simply introduced the four traditional methods of investment risk analysis and monte carlo simulation is introduced detailedly, especially its basic ideas and steps, as well as the random number generation method.Then analyzed the mine investment risk model based on the net present value and proposed and established new model.4, Crystal ball software and the concrete steps for Monte Carlo simulations with the crystal ball software is introduced.5, Using the theory method and software method described above, technical and economic effect of Zhiben mountain was evaluated.The use of crystal ball software has carried on the risk analysis. Through the comparative analysis of simulation results based on traditional and new method, combined with the technical and economic effect, the countermeasures of risk control are puted forward.