Research On Regional Vulnerability And Rural Poverty

Poverty is an important constraint to build a harmonious society. In China, the majority of the poverty population lived in rural. These poverty-stricken peasants should get more concern. This paper analyses a variety of vulnerability factors which leaded to the rural poverty and had benefit for a deeper understanding of the incidence and development of rural poverty. Such a work also had a contribution to the reduction of rural poverty and promoting a harmonious society. It is of great theoretical and practical significance. In this paper, an econometric analysis and factor analysis were used to conduct an empirical research focusing on the relationship between the vulnerability indicators and rural poverty rate in 26 provinces from 2003 to 2005.First, this paper used the fixed-effects model with same coefficients to uncover the overall relationship between the vulnerability indicators and rural poverty rate in all 26 provinces and then used another fixed-effects model with dummy variables of Dong-Zhong-Xi three major areas to find the different impacts among areas. Main conclusions were: (1) the total production fixed assets of rural household increased by 1,000 Yuan, the rural poverty rate dropped 3.12 percent, (2) the affected area proportion of the total sown area increased by 1%, the rural poverty rate raised 0.19 percent (3) the proportion of the rural adult labor force in semi-illiteracy level had not significant influence on the poverty rate, so did the dummy variables.Secondly, the different types of vulnerability indicators were classified through factor analysis, and further calculation of the factor scores of provinces were used to carry out a vulnerability sort of them. Two main factors can be named as the natural and human capital factors, the conditions for agricultural production factor. The above sort showed that: the majority of the highest vulnerability provinces located in the southwest and northwest provinces, especially the southwestern region; the differences of vulnerability among the eastern and central provinces were large; several provinces had much higher vulnerability than others.Third, establishment a two-dimensional rectangular coordinate according to the load factors of the provinces on the two main vulnerability factors. And then the regional differences of the composition of the vulnerability were discussed. The results showed that: most eastern provinces and part central and western provinces with well natural and economic conditions are weak in vulnerability; other eastern, central and western regions with well conditions of the natural and economic had middle vulnerability. In southwest, northwest and some central provinces, vulnerability was high. Generally speaking, a more vulnerability region may have a higher rural poverty rate.Fourth, a two-dimensional rectangular coordinate was established according to the factor scores and the rural poverty rate of provinces. After that a discussion was made on the regional differences of the composition of the factor scores and the rural poverty rate. The results showed that: provinces with low vulnerability and high poverty rate generally located in eastern, central and western regions with good natural and economic conditions; provinces with low vulnerability and low poverty rate generally located in northeastern and eastern regions with good natural and economic conditions; most provinces with high vulnerability and low poverty rate were southwestern and central provinces, several eastern provinces were similar to them; provinces with high vulnerability and high poverty rate were some western and individual central provinces with poor natural and economic conditions.Finally, some policy recommendations were given. These include: reducing the vulnerability of farmers in three respects——ecological environment, the social security system and farmers own ability to resist risk; increasing input to the western region and several central and eastern provinces with high factor score in vulnerability to narrow the regional gap; according to the regional differences of the composition of the vulnerability, the supportive policies should be various as well; according to the regional differences of the composition of the factor scores and the rural poverty rate, the supportive policies should be different.