Research On The Regional Difference Of The LUCC Process Under The Different Mangage Modes In Qitai Oasis

Land use and land cover change has great influence on the environment evolution and suitable development of economy, which is an important part of global change and a main reason for global climate change. The research about Land use and land cover change in regional scale is an important part of globalLUCC research. The study on driving forces of land use and land cover can greatly help us to understand the essential of land use change, and based on it, we can predict the developing trend of land use change.This paper take the Qitai oasis as research area and carry on study base on four phase remote sensing images in 1986,1990,1999,2006。The author uses the 3S technology and the LUCC index model to analyze the scope of land use and land cover change, the variation rate, the land use degree as well as the regional difference of the land use change for 20 years between the local domination and the farm domination which located in the internal oasis. And predicts the land use change variation tendency of each domination in 2010 and 2020 by Markov model. Then combined with the actual situation of the Qitai oasis, the author proposes some feasible suggestions and countermeasures to the land use and regional sustainable development of the research area in the internal oasis in the future. On the foundation of the research, we can draw the following conclusions:(1) Among the land structures in the local domination and the farm domination, farmland and grassland are two main land types. In the local domination, the percentage of famland is 70.12% and grassland is 16.85%, in the farm domination, the percentage of famland is 63.64% and grassland is 17.94% in 2006, but the proportion of residential and industrial land,water area,saline and alkali land are relatively few.(2) The area change dynamic degree of the local domination and the farm domination is 29.40% and 19.47% respectively, the space change degree is 48.73% and 56.59% respectively; The integrative trend and condition index of both is 0.60% and 0.34% respectively. The former is at the non-equilibrium state, but the latter is at the state of equilibrium. (3) Through the contrastive analysis of the land use degree index we can conclude that the land use degree in the local domination is the greatest during 1986-1990, the percentage is 38.44%. But the land use degree in the farm domination is the greatest during 1999-2006, the percentage is 13.52%.(4) The forecasting result indicated that the area of farmland in the local domination and the farm domination will increase 3.51% and 1.17% respectively till 2020, which shows that because of the restricted region in the farm domination, the farmland is unable to extend, and the proportion of grassland area in both domination are gradually decline.(5)Because the effect that the natural factor makes on the land use change is not obvious, and there is no deep discrepancy between the exploitation of water resource and the use degree of agrotechnical in the whole oasis.Therefore the manage mode of farmland,the implement of policy and the change of population are the main factors that affect the land-types variation in the two study area of Qitai oasis.