The Exploringly Research Of Complex Systems Risk Management

Based on international and national risk management theory and application results as well as characteristics of complex systems, hierarchical holographic modeling, monte carlo simulation, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, surrogate worth trade-off method and multiobjective risk impact analysis are exploringly and methodologically introduced into risk management research of complex systems for exploring the extent and depth of theory and application about this field, and increasing their possibilities. Moreover, these methods will give strong support for multidisciplinary system risk management.The main contents and achievements of this paper are as follows:(1) Based on summary of traditional risk estimate, hierarchical holographic modeling is introduced in this research for multiscale structural characteristics of real complex systems. This action will pioneer thinking for conquering some weakness of large system risk modeling.(2) Based on contrasting traditional risk estimate and evaluation techniques, the introduction of monte carlo simulation and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation deepens the depth of analytical techniques used in risk estimate and evaluation process. This paper detailedly discusses their arithmetic programs as embodies their powerful numerical computation advantage when they get support from computer information technologies.(3) Methodologically, valuable surrogate worth trade-off method and multiobjective risk impact analysis are exploringly introduced in risk decision. Considering attention-getting risk management issues of natural disaster extreme events, this research reveals validity and advantage of surrogate worth trade-off method applied in risk decision, when using Pinatubo Mount as the case.(4) Combining valuable historical experience of risk control and supervision in project management, this research deeply discusses many kinds of methods and strategies usually used in this phase, and supplies inspiration for perfecting complex system risk emergency measure and supervision systems.