System Identification And Preventive Countermeasures For Aerospace Complex Products R&D

Aerospace complex products,a typical representative of complex products,is an important indicator of the country ' s overall strength,embody the level of industrialization of a country,and also a powerful driving force for the development of the national economy,an important carrier for the development of national science and technology.As aerospace complex products mostly involve cross-cutting science and cutting-edge science,they have long development cycles,huge investment,wide research institutes,environmental uncertainties,large amounts of technical information,and complex process specifications,which have greatly increased the difficulty in the development of aerospace products.At the same time,the complexity of the development of aerospace complex product projects also determines its high-risk nature.How to effectively deal with development risks is an urgent problem for related companies.Reviewing the existing relevant research literatures,it is found that there are few researches on the development risk of aerospace complex product projects.Therefore,this paper selects the risk of aeronautical complex product project development for analysis and research.Based on the study of related project risk management,this paper proposes a development risk management framework for aeronautical complex product projects.According to the risk management framework,a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis,theoretical analysis and empirical research are used in key risk factors identification,comprehensive risk assessment and risk prevention to study the development risk of aerospace complex product projects.First of all,in the empirical analysis,this article initially extracted 12 risk factors for the development of aerospace complex product projects through factor analysis,and then established a multiple linear regression model together with the risk factors and project risk results to further identify five key risk factors of aerospace complex product development projects : technical difficulty risk,cost management risk,organizational management status risk,equipment and facility protection risk,and other external risks.These five key risk factors indicate theuniqueness of the risk composition for the development of aerospace complex product projects.Many of the risk factors for the development of complex product projects in general are not significant for aerospace complex product projects.Secondly,with the identified key risk factors and their own items as targets,a risk assessment index system for the development of aeronautical complex product projects was constructed.We using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the analytic hierarchy process and the rough set theory to determine the weight of each risk factor,the possibility of occurrence of the overall risk of the project and each risk factor.The comprehensive evaluation results indicate that the risk of development of aeronautical complex product projects is relatively high,and the importance of each key risk factor on the overall risk of the project is ranked as technical difficulty risk> expense management risk> equipment and facility security risk> other external risks> organizational management status risk Their corresponding level of influence is relatively high,relatively high,relatively high,general,and general.Finally,according to the results of risk identification and evaluation,it proposes to divide the development risk prevention of aeronautical complex product projects into five parts: technical difficulty risk prevention,cost management risk prevention,organizational management risk prevention,equipment and facilities protection risk prevention,and external risk prevention.According to the importance and risk level of the evaluation index,the priority order of risk prevention is put forward,and the corresponding risk prevention measures are put forward according to the order of risk prevention.Among them,4 countermeasures are put forward for the prevention of technical difficulty risks;3 countermeasures are put forward for the prevention of cost management risks;3 countermeasures are put forward for the organization and management of risk prevention;2countermeasures are proposed for the protection of equipment and facility risks;2countermeasures are proposed for the protection of external risk.