The Research Of Impact Made By The Changes Of China's Residents Consumption Demand On Food Import

All the time, food trade is one of the international trades which catch most people's eyes, since it involves many issues, such as production, consumption , quantity security and so on. China has a large group of population of 1.3 billion , which naturally means that the consumption is extremely cumbersome. Not only on the development of China's economic and society ,but also on the worldwide food production, trade, consumption and other factors, this problem will have a decisive effect. In 1990s, American scholar Leicestershire·Brown had predicted that, in the near future, the world's total food exports are unable to meet only China 's food imports demand. Based on such background, this thesis will discuss the relation between China's consumption demand and food imports from a new perspective of food consumption's impact on food imports.Firstly, this thesis has a review and analysis of the theories at home and abroad of demand affecting international trade, mainly including Similar Preferences Theory, the National Competitive Advantage Theory, Engel's Law, Traction Growth Theory, and Fallacy of Composition Theory. The innovation of this thesis, based on the common features, individual characteristics and inadequacies of these theories, focus on the issues of food consumption and imports. Moreover, with measurement tools, this thesis gives an empirical analysis of food trade imports brought by the changes of food consumption demand in the scale and structure in our country from 1984 to 2006.Secondly, this thesis amply review Similar Preferences Theory, the National Competitive Advantage Theory, Engel's Law, Traction Growth Theory, and Fallacy of Composition Theory, which supplies a good theoretical basis for the analysis followed. And then, this thesis' detailed steps of analysis are as follows:i) the analysis of the consumption structure and scale of our country' main foodbetween 1997 and 2006 (i.e. 10 years around the period that our countryentered WTO).ii) the analysis of the scale and structure of China's food imports within thisperiod.Each analysis describes the scale features and structure features on which the consumption and imports of cereals, oil food, meat, fruits and vegetables and aquatic food emerged, and gives further explanation to those. Further more, this thesis gives an Empirical Analysis of the greatest importance. In accordance with the relation between China's main food imports and the changes of their consumption scale and structure from 1984 to 2006, this thesis gives Regression analysis, the co-integration testing, causal analysis and ELES model analysis to each of them. After getting the conclusion, this thesis gives an further analysis of the reasons and also makes a forecast to some foods' future development trends.At last, on the basis of the whole thesis' conclusion, it gives a further discussion on food quantity security and analyses and summarizes Positive and negative perspectives.