Research On Grain Consumption Demand In Hebei Province

This article takes Hebei province resident's food consumption as the research object,which uses the comparative analysis method,the scene analysis method,the time series model and so on to carry on the research to Hebei province urban and rural residents ' food consumption situation based on the balanced diet mode angle,and forecasts the future food demand of Hebei province.The results show that the total food consumption witnesses a gradual increase,and the food consumption structure presents that rations witness a gradual decrease,the grain for fodder and industrial uses grow rapidly,and the grain for seeds usually hold steady.The consumption of rations by urban residents is reasonable,but the consumption of rations by rural residents is excessive,and there is a phenomenon of food waste.The consumption of grains for fodder by urban residents has basically reached the low-nutrient target level,and the consumption of grains for fodder promulgates the deficiency of consumption in rural residents.Taking population structure elements into account,it will reach 23.7854 million tons in 2020,24.6590 million tons in 2025,and 25.5671 million tons in 2030.Comparing with no consideration of population structure elements,it decreased by 3.8451 tons,3.9899 tons,and 4.1362 tons respectively.According to the analysis results,the following policy suggestions are proposed:(1)Promote the popularization and propaganda of consumption knowledge on nutrition and health,and guide residents to a proper diet;(2)Pay attention to the changes in the population structure and adjust the food security regulation mechanism in time;(3)Optimize the industrial upgrading of the food industry and increase the conversion rate of grains for fodder;(4)Adjusting the allocation of agricultural production to adapt to changes in dietary structure.Innovation:(1)on the basis of the national scope of research,to a certain extent,to reduce the regional scope to more accurate analysis of regional food consumption situation.(2)take a brand-new angle of view-balanced diet mode angle of view,to the Hebei Province resident food consumption present situation carries on the research,and further predicted that considers the population structure and does not consider the population structure two kinds of situation in Hebei province future food demand situation,compared two kinds of forecast result difference,To provide scientific basis for formulating the strategy of grain security in Hebei Province in the new period.