The Relation Between Transportation Scale And Macroscopic Economical Development

The development of the transportation system do not only support but also accelerate the economy development; on the contrary, the improvement of economic level could increase the investment on the basic transportation establishments as well. It will drive the economy development by enhancing the transportation supply and satisfying more transportation requirements. So it is very important for programming the scale of the transportation system of our country to research the relationship between the development of the transportation and the economy. US is selected, as the developed country, to be analyzed and compared with China and the phased character of transportation construction and scale during the economy development is studied.In this paper, the dynamic relationship and its developmental rule is studied by supply and requirements, which includes:Firstly, the transportation status of big cities in our country is analyzed; the history, source and foreground of the transportation issue is summarized; and the significance for the city transportation construction in our country, which applies the dynamic analysis into reviewing the phased character of the transportation development, is presented.Secondly, the fundamental and the application of the nonlinear co integration are presented and the advantages of the nonlinear co integration to be applied into the macroscopical and microcosmic transportation are analyzed as well.Thirdly, the relationship between the city transportation environment and the economic development is analyzed combined with the city transportation construction experience of foreign developed countries. The essential reason for the phased character of the city transportation environment and the economic development is presented.Fourthly, the development of Chinese and US transportation and economy is used as background and the total mileage and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are selected as indicators. The dynamic relationship and the phased character of the macroscopical transportation supply and the economic development is analyzed by the nonlinear co integration method. It is found that the slope of the total mileage increase to the GDP increase become less clearly and there is no distinct rebound again when GDP reached a certain scale according to the US data. The phased character is presented. China is still in the phase of mileage increase continuously by researching the Chinese data.Fifthly, the phased character of the transportation requirements and the economic development is studied as the indicator of Vehicle-Miles Travel (VMT). The phased character is looking for based on the dynamic relationship between the Vehicle-Miles Travel and the National GDP and the dynamic relationship between the Vehicle-Miles Travel of the California, US and the DSP of the California, US. The phased character is found that the transportation requirements will increase with the enhancement of the economy. However, the transportation requirements will decrease with the enhancement of the economy and will not rebound again when the Personal GDP reached US$11000 and US$17000.Finally, the feasibility, that the research of the US historical data is applied into China, is analyzed. Compared with the development in US, the trend of Chinese transportation development is forecasted and the constructive opinion is presented.