Research On Relevant Problems About The Financial Early-warning System Of Real Estate Corporations

As the further reform of economic structure and the rapid development of capital market, the complexity and uncertainty in the field of economy have been appearing increasingly. Corporations come to a financial crisis increasingly; some of them even go bankrupt. The real estate, which is related to many other estates, has high driving coefficients and a high degree of association, is the forerunner and foundation in the national economy system. In recent years, a series of problems appear, for example, the rapid investment in real estate, the high rate of vacancy, the rapid rise of the real estate price. The risks, appearing behind the rapid development of the real estate, have been focused by the public. So the financial early-warning system should be established to reflect and inspect the development of the real estate, what's more, give early warning to it. It is no doubt that the system would help the real estate with avoiding the risk, improving the interests of the investor, the loaner and the country.First, the necessity and feasibility of establishing financial crisis system in the real estate are analyzed. The quantitative analysis methods are used and four models for distinguishing the financial crisis are established. They are: Logistic Model (using financial index) based on principal component analysis, Logistic Model (non-using financial index) based on principal component analysis, Logistic Model (using synthetic index) based on principal component analysis, and Z-value Model. Second. 4 corporations (coming to a financial crisis) and 41 corporations (without coming any financial crisis) are taken as samples. Based on the financial statements to the public from 2002 to 2005, an empirical analysis using SPSS13.0 is performed. Last, the data coming out from the empirical analysis are performed comparative analysis. The conclusion that all the four models can give early warnings to financial crisis at a certain content are drawn. In contrast, Z-value model is more stable and credible.