Research On The Forecasting Of Entry Tourism Demand In Shanxi Province

In recent years, entry tourism industry in Shanxi Province has gained development by leaps and bounds, which also contributes to the whole economic development in our province. However, as an extremely sensitive industry, entry tourism might be impacted tremendously by any kinds of unexpected issues, including international political or economic turmoil. This paper aims to study in the alterative trend of entry tourism demand with quantitative method analysis, and establish the quantitative model to predict situation related to the inbound tourists in Shanxi province.With a massive reading, summarized literature at home and abroad, and generalized methods of tourism demand forecasting, this paper gives a concise analysis of those various forecasting methods.Combined with the actual situation of the tourism industry in Shanxi Province, related data and situation, including the quantity of the entry tourists and international tourism foreign exchange earnings from 1979 to 2007, are gathered through accessing to Internet and files searching. And the Grey Theory is also utilized as well in this paper to predict the situation of entry tourism in the next five years after 2008. However, the special nature of tourism industry, which refers to its sensitivity, or being vulnerable to be influenced by outside environment, determines that this prediction could only be a rough and concise calculation, particularly considering the fact that 2008 Olympic Games will be held in Beijing, and that the slogan-"Game in Beijing, Tour in Shanxi" has been raised, both of which would to a large extent impact the entry tourism of Shanxi Province. Therefore, as the impact of the facts above has not fully considered in this paper, the prediction of entry tourism in Shanxi province may be adjusted to a relatively passive result.At last, the paper raised some suggestions and proposals concerning about accelerating the development of entry tourism in Shanxi Province to provide policy preferences for tourism macro-control departments.