The Research On Forecasting Of Power Demand Based On Economic Factor In Guangdong Province

As the major part of Guangdong province, the power industry has played a very important part in the social and economic development. In the last years, due to development of economy and adjustment of economic structure in Guangdong province, power demand has increased rapidly. At the same time, power supply has not been enough. Therefore, it is important to find out a suitable method which can forecast the power demand for Guangdong province.In this paper, first of all, we analyze the reasons of the antinomy of the power demand and supply by economic target and power-consumption in last eight years. The second, through a compare analysis between the Linear Regression Model and Gery Model, Gery Model is a superior model. But its limitation is analyzed and revealed based on the history data which don't take economic factor into account. The third, According to the national economy is the immanent rule of the power system's development. The annual power consumption related to the national economy development is added to the Gery forecasting model. Let value of β be the GDP value divided by annual power consumption year by year. Using the data row of β, construct gray β forecasting model to forecasting the power demand which can improve the prediction accuracy of the original gray model. Then we use the β forecasting model to forecast the power demand of Guangdong province in the next five years , and analyze the result. Finally, based on research above all, this essay put forward that achieving Sustainable Development is the approach which the power industry in Guangdong province face on the future. Then the paper discusses the policy which the power industry in Guangdong province develops in the future as the conclusion.