Risk Analysis Of The Giant Containership Investment Based On Nonlinear Model

With the acceleration of the process of standardization andpopularization of multimodal transport, container transport now isdeveloping rapidly. And it has become more and more popular. Althoughthe global shipping market is now not so good, the container transportvolume continues to increase. This is a good news for the container liners.Because of the carbon emissions, the continued development of containershipping market, the trend of shipping alliance and the economies of scale,the container liners have built larger container ships to improve their owncompetitiveness. For this reason, the largest capacity of container shipupdates shorter and shorter.Since container transport is highly capital intensive, ship investmentis one of the most important business activities in the companies. Itaffects much about the enterprises’ capital situation, transportationcapacity and the fleet structure. Ship investment needs a lot of money,especially the giant container ship investment, so, it needs to beconsidered carefully. Based on the balance hypothesis of supply and demand in globalcontainer transport market, it was be found that the relationship of theloading capacity and its number of vessel by the nonlinear regressionanalysis to year data of global container fleet scale and trading volumefrom1996to2012. Using this relationship, the reasonable time could befigure out for the appearance of the largest container vessel. The giantship of which the capacity is22000TEU may appear in2019.Then, the giant container ship investment risk analysis model is builtbased on the condition of the supply and demand of container transportmarket. The model is built from the standpoint of the container liners.The model is made to provide reference for container liners to analysisrisk.