Research On Taxi Passenger Capacity Development Of The Scale Of Wuhan City

Taxi is an important part of urban public transport system with its convenience, speed, comfort and service a wide range of characteristics,which is different from other passenger transport method in the city. It locates in the way of higher demand in the city passenger traffic, to a certain extent, it is on behalf of one of the hallmarks of the level of civilization of the city, also is the spiritual "window" of the city. Wuhan City as the mega-cities in the central of China, by the end of 2008, the Center City District have 12,137 taxis, passenger transport system traffics in nearly 500 million passengers a year. With the further development of the Wuhan city circle,Wuhan's traffic problems, especially,the problem of Taxi passenger become more and more serious. Its management system and level of service become less and less adapt to the development of the city, in order to improve the system theory of the economic and management of taxi and maintenance the healthy and stable development of the taxi market, and better adapted to the Wuhan economic and social development. In this paper, conduct in-depth research on the scale of the taxi transport theory and methods, which have a very important theory and practical significance.In the paper, transportation economics and mathematical statistics theories, as well as relevant research results of other subjects are used, conduct demand, supply and evaluation of the theory and practice of taxi transportation market, from the systematic point of view of the Wuhan City taxi transport, focus on the research of the operating system, scale of develope capacity and service evaluation of taxi.On the basis of introducing the present development situation from the aspects of the development overview,industry management, business model and problems of taxi in Wuhan, analyzes the relevant factors of scale transport capacity of taxi. applicate queuing theory and mathematical statistics theories, through the establishment of taxi Random birth and death system model to study the operation of taxi system, reach a conclusion on the origin and practical significance of the empty-travelling rate,which is the main indicator of taxi. Then, according to the characteristics of taxi operating, using time series method, the Factors prediction and neural network prediction, made a reasonable forecast on the size of the taxi in Wuhan. In the forecast, considering the complexity of the factors in taxi market, using multiple linear regression models, increase of the credibility of predictation ; taxi operating under the decentralized flexible characteristics of the industry, operations related to the reality of the lack of data, using gray prediction model To improve the accuracy of the forecasts; Since some of the relationship between these parameters are difficult to accurately measure ,using neural network prediction method to improve the forecasting tool. Finally, in order to give full play to the strengths of various forecasting methods, to improve forecast accuracy, the use of combination forecasting method of Wuhan City in 2020～2010 had a sophisticated reasonable forecast. In determining the size of capacity, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and Analytic Hierarchy Process of the respective level of taxi service standards to evaluate the scale of development, from the "quality" and "quantity" of the two aspects of a comprehensive study taxi market. Finally, propose Wuhan City taxi-scale capacity development strategy.