Study On Rationalization Of Passenger Taxi Transport Capacity Scale In Shenzhen

Urban public transport system includes conventional common transportation, rapid rail transit, commuter rail station and the common traffic. It is an important symbol of the level of urban modernization and an important carrier of urban culture. As China’s reform and opening up forward positions, the rapid development and numerous floating populations make the demand for taxi grow up quickly. Recent years, Shenzhen has optimized the structure of the taxi market through various means and always increased transport capacity, however, there does still be many problems, such as strike, black taxi can’t be prohibited, it be difficult for residents to take a taxi. There is a large gap in management mechanism of capacity put between Shenzhen and developed countries. How to determine the size of Shenzhen Taxi capacity has become an important aspect of urban transportation. Based on this, this paper uses BP neural network model to forecast capacity scale required, as to rationalize capacity scale in Shenzhen.Firstly, the status quo of taxi capacity put research is reviewed, meanwhile, status and problems of Shenzhen taxi industry are analyzed; secondly, this paper summarizes factors which influencing taxi capacity scale on the basis of existing literature, providing reference for indicators choosing in empirical research; lastly, BP neural network model is used to forecast 2015-2020 taxi capacity scale in Shenzhen.Studies have shown that:(1) Taxi ownership is influenced by economic and social development, mode of transportation, related policies and other factors;(2) the forecasting result of 2015-2020 exported from the BP neutral network mode built in the paper is nearly to the actual number, and the error of training samples and non-training samples is closer. All this can tell us that the built mode can provide reference for us to put taxi capacity in 2015-2020, in Shenzhen.The results of BP neural network analysis and the status quo show that there is a contradiction about shortage in Shenzhen taxi passenger capacity market. In the fifth chapter, the thesis combs theory of urban passenger taxi transport capacity scale: direct-numbered control, indirect-numbered control, release-numbered control, and expounds on the reasons for each opinion. From Shenzhen reality, we believe that the best choice is indirect-numbered control, as it can stabilize markets, guarantee quality of service, ease traffic congestion. Therefore, combing the empirical results in chapter 4, some suggestions are put forward in chapter 6:(1) Following three principles: scientific orientation taxi, government controlling capacity, a moderate increase in transport capacity;(2) Reforming management system: implementing the "household responsibility" mode of operation, establishing service price adjustment system;(3) Using "spell Taxi" and "Internet + Taxi" way to solve the difficult problem of taxi passengers;(4) Purifying taxi passenger operations market: combating illegal operations, improving services and facilities, strengthening the relevant legal system.