The Research Of A Kind Of Improved Risk Analysis Method And Application

Currently along with the quick development of the national economy, the large engineering construction items are becoming more and more. The technique difficulties, the line of invest and the period of construction are also more and more severe. The engineering item owns many risks during the period of construction. Therefore, the risk management has important meanings to the item construction, and also is subjected to the appreciation and the concern of engineering construction unit, charge of unit and the whole society. Accompanied with the formation and development of the international engineering construction market, the research theories of the engineering item risk management occurred .In the 50's or 60's of last century, along with the west society's post-war reconstruction and the recovery of the Western European economy, it is applied extensively in the construction items of the large water and electricity, energy and transportation. It developed from the early item plan judge technique and the later sensitivity analysis and imitation technique to descriptive and evaluative elements which influence the item target using the way of the mathematics covariance and all the method of the rate. Accompanied with new evaluation methods, the analysis and management of the engineering risk is developing into comprehensive and overall directions. The engineering item risk management has become system engineering, and it involves the engineering management of each aspect, including risk identification, estimation, evaluation, control and decision. Its purpose attains to lower loss, control cost with the item environment indetermination research and control.The risk management requests people not only to settle sex, but also point out how much all rates the risk's occurrence is with fixed amount, and the result of the risk is so severe. Although the risk quantitative analysis of the risk has many technique means, it still has a lot of worthy and thorough study space. This text uses the method combined the Analytic Hierarchy Process with Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation. It aims at an actual risk management of a particular and large engineering item. It studied to produce a set of ways which are operative and have specifically worthy evaluations to the engineering item risk management from setting up an expert questionnaire to the risk factor evaluation and the result evaluation, and this method is used into the actual risk management of the engineering item. It takes an evaluation to two different stages and put forwards meaning evaluation conclusions. Meantime, it put forwards risk programming to the large engineering item construction according to the evaluation result .It has great significance to the later construction of the engineering item .