An Economic Analysis Of The Rural Labor Reflow

The key of solving the farmer problem of China is to handle the transfer of rural labor forces.The transfer of rural labor forces from agricultural sectors to non-agricultural sectors is the objective laws and the inevitable trend of social development.This transfer is the only way for any developing country to complete the process of industrialization.In this paper, we launched a series of analysis of the particular phenomenon in the process of chinese labor transfer: the rural labor reflow.Firstly,I analyse the status quo and the impact of the reflow.Then I use two mathematical models, according to the statistical data,to explore the micro and macro reasons of the rural labor reflow. Finally I analyse the externality of venturing of home-going migrant workers .The article has six chapters:The first chapter Introduction: The introduction tells us the background of the issue, and defines the concept of the rural labor reflow.Then this chapter makes the distinction between two different kinds of rural labor reflow.This chapter explains the theoretical and practical significance of the topic, and establishes the idea and framework of the paper.The second chapter The outline of the theory of rural labor flow: This part presents the results of previous studies including the labor flow theory of western scholars and the research production on the rural labor reflow of chinese scholars.Western labor transfer theorys contain the labor transfer theory of W.A Lewis, Ranis - Fei model of the labor transfer, labor transfer theory of D.Jorgensen, manpower capital investment cost-income theoretical theory of Schulz, the labor transfer theory of Todaro ,and the new migration theory.The research summary of domestic scholars contains the research about venturing of home-going migrant workers, the research about institution causes of the rural labor reflow, the research about labor supply and demand structure, the research about inter-generational transfer, the theory of"Lewis turning point"of Cai Fang and related disputes. This chapter starts from these theoretical results,and makes evaluations of these theories ,then discusses the advantages and shortcomings of these theories.The third Chapter History and current situation, causes and effects of migrant workers reflow: First of all, this chapter reviews the three historical stages of the migrant workers reflow. The three stages are the late 80's to the mid-90's, mid-90's to 2003,and early in 2004 to the year of 2006. Then this chapter gives us an objective description of the migrant workers reflow at present stage, and makes a comparison with the the previous stages, analyses the differences between present migrant workers reflow and previous stages in regard to the size and the speed. Secondly, this chapter uses the method of DEMATEL to analyses the causes of the reflow of migrant workers.This part introduces the characteristics and specific steps of DEMATEL method , and analyses the applicability of this theory. Then I build a reflow factor system, and divid the system into six aspects:macro-environment, the subject factors of the labor force,political and cultural environment,agricultural factors,policy and legal and social service environment, out-migration employment of the rural labor.I select 33 representative reflow factors from these six aspects, the selection of factors taken the reliability and the authenticity into account. This provid a detailed index system for the empirical analysis part of the paper. Then I calculate the reflow factors system using the method of DEMATEL ,and make the quantitative analysis of micro causes of migrant workers reflow according to the results.Finally, from the aspects of migrant labor-import regions and migrant labor-export regions,from the perspective of the positive impact and negative impact , this chapter makes a detailed analysis of the social effects of the migrant workers reflow.The fourth chapter The analysis of migrant workers reflow from the view of industry: The reflow of migrant workers is not just because of financial crisis.The 2008 reflow occurred earlier than the financial crisis. It probably happened in March last year when the downbeat of real estate began. Statistics also show that the transfer and the reflow of rural labor force has strong links with the industry.According to this understanding,this chapter mainly analyses the macro causes of the migrant workers reflow from the perspective of inter-industry.First of all, this chapter introduces the gray correlation analysis method.Then I calculate grey correlation degree of the rural population of non-agricultural industry.I infer the conclusions which are based on the number results:In this three industries (industry, construction industry, the tertiary industry) ,construction industry could have the most impact on migrant workers reflow.2008 reflow largely dues to the recession trend in the real estate market and the decline of real estate developers'willingness to invest.The fifth chapter The externality of venturing of home-going migrant workers: Firstly this chapter discusses the performances, characteristics and causes of the externality of venturing of home-going migrant workers.Then through comparison we discuss the two ways of internalization of the externality(government solution and market solution).Finally I suggest that the government implement a series of economic incentive policies to stimulate home-going migrant workers'enthusiasm for venturing.So there will be more business-oriented enterprises which the home-going migrant workers established.The sixth Chapter The summary of the paper and the outlook of research:Through the research of chinese rural labor force reflow,we get the following conclusions:(A)Environmental factors of policy, legal and social services, are the most important external environment which effect the migrant workers reflow.Amang these factors the training of migrant workers employment of migrant workers has the highest reason degree on the reflow of migrant workers.So the government should increase the investment in migrant workers'vocational training.(B)The construction industry has great effect on non-agricultural employment.We can start from this point to solve the problem of migrant workers reflow. The healthy development of the real estate industry is beneficial to the rational flow of rural labor force.(C)The venturing of home-going migrant workers has a positive externality on society. The government should formulate a series of incentive policies to provide a good environment for venturing to stimulate home-going migrant workers'enthusiasm for venturing.The government should strongly encourage the home-going migrant workers whose conditions are excellent to venture.(D)About the choice of indexes of DEMETEL model, this paper lack of in-depth consideration of accuracy. The follow-up studies could try to improve this defect and compare the calculation results.(E)About the choice of variables in the gray relational model,the meanings of the characteristics variables chosen in the research are too simple.And I did not analyse the effect of non-agricultural employment on other variables which have more profound meanings.I did not give the specific recommendations about how to adjust the industriesment to get a reasonable and positive migrant workers flow either.