A Study On The Early Warning Of Urban Land Price

With the reform of institution for using land on payment going deeper in depth, the role and values of land are becoming increasingly manifested in urban building and socio-economic development. As land supply and the management of land market becomes an important means for national macroscopic regulating and controlling, that how to use the instrument of land price to ensure the healthy stable and ordered development of land market and to promote the stable and healthy functions of macroscopic economy by regulating and controlling land market and by managing urban land becomes an important problem waiting for governments at all levels to solve.This research aims to monitor the fluctuations of land price in time by using the theories and methods of economic early warning and real estate market early warning from both home and abroad to reveal the theories and methods of monitoring and early warning of urban land price.This paper is divided into five parts: The part of introduction made a detailed analysis of the research's background and significances, and summed up the research dynamics of theories and technologies of monitoring and early warning, and carry out the main contents and technological route. The second part mainly answered the key question"What factors or conditions that contribute to the formation of urban land price? How is the relationship among these factors and to what extent they influence the forming of land price? What is the alteration regular pattern of urban land price?"To further clarify the connotation and function of the early warning of urban land price. The third part analyzed emphatically the process and method of early warning of urban land price. The fourth part made a case study of the early warning of housing market of Shenzhen city on the basis of available achievements. According to the present status of the land market and results of early warning of Shenzhen city area, this part put forward some measures and countermeasures to construct and manage the land market of Shenzhen city. The fifth part is the conclusion of the whole paper.The results of the case study on the urban land price of Shenzhen city area are:①The land price level of Shenzhen city area is reasonable;②The price of house land will continue to climb up.