Research On Early-warning Of Urban Land Price

As the land market which is in the socialist market system becoming more and more important, land regulation has become an important means of macro-control. Based on dynamic monitoring of land price system, the warning of urban land prices can correctly grasp the change of land prices, warn the abnormal fluctuations of the land prices, provide a basis for the Government on developing land management policies and land control. Therefore, the study in warning of urban land has great significance to consummate land macro-control system, protecte land market has healthy, stable and orderly development, promote national economy a persistend rapid and healthy development.As the residential land in Zhengzhou for example, using 19 cities in Zhengzhou as the sample data, basing on the economic boom theory, economic fluctuation cycle theory, urban systems theory, the law of large numbers, based on analysing urban residential land prices, with the entropy value method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, regression analysis, the gray prediction method, the paper measured the alarming of urban residential land from 2002 to 2008, then predicted Zhengzhou alarming degree of urban residential land in the next few years, and finally put forward the relevant countermeasures. The main conclusions are as follows:(1)In recent years, Zhengzhou residential land prices increased rapidly, there appeared signs of alarm. The price level of urban residential land was 2245 yuan per square meters in 2008, and rose 78.32 percent compared with 2000, being the most obvious in the different land-uses. The land price index was 178. From 2000 to 2008,the annual growth rate of residential land price in Zhengzhou are higher than the other uses except 2004, the highest being up to 13.42% in 2006.(2)The results of estimating urban residential land prices show:the warning degree of residential land prices in Zhengzhou will go through lighter to no, no to lighter from 2002 to 2012.2002-2004 was the light warning degree. The market land price was lower than the reasonable land prices. Land prices deviation were more than 10%.2005-2009 was without a warning.Land price deviation were almost 10%, that indicated the relation of urban residential land prices and macroeconomic coordination are in good condition during this period.2010-2011 is the light warning degree, and 2012 is the middle warning degree. The market price will be higher than the reasonable land price.Land prices deviation will be more than 10% and there is increasing trend.The police condition will further increase, if unchecked, a real estate bubble is inevitable.(3) In order to restrain land speculation and prevent the production of the bubble economy, the government can inhibit rise of the land price recently by optimizing land supply structure, hold and consummat the system of land system of tender,auction and listing, Uphold and improve the information disclosure system and so on. Meanwhile, we must enhance the dynamic monitoring and management of land price further and improve urban land decision warning system in order to meet the objective requirements of new era land management.