An Empirical Study On China's Automobile Industry Growth Factors-Based On The Time-varying Stochastic Frontier Production Function

As one of the world's highest degree of globalization industries, the growth of automobile industry receives popular concern. China's auto industry has gradually become a pillar industry, and the calculation of the growth quality concerning automobile industry is very important. Based on the time-varying stochastic frontier production function, calculate China's automobile industry growth factors, try to build China's automobile industry growth and optimization of the theoretical framework, give the strategy about upgrading China's automobile industry production. The basic conclusions are as follows:(1) The research of China's automobile industry's growth process and the status shows that: the total output value of China's automobile industry increased nearly 20 times from 1991 to 2006, the average annual increase of 23.3 percent. In 2006, China's car Market growth of 24.7 percent year-on-year, worldwide sales in the second; There is a obvious gap China's auto industry R&D investment in absolute terms and relative number compare with the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea's automobile industry. The independent brands grow rapidly, but on the current market share, independent brands with the joint venture still exists a wide gap between the brands; The fluctuation of China's automobile industry concentration was lightly from 1998 to 2006, CR10 is more than 75 percent, CR5 is about 50 percent, the Gini coefficient is more than the 0.54 for nine years. China's auto industry is not balanced, but the highest CR3 is only 45.56 percent, far less than the United States, Japan, Korea, France and Italy.(2) Conclusions based on the time-varying stochastic frontier production function are: China's automobile industry average contribution of total factor productivity is 48.86 percent, close to intensive production growth. In 1998-2006 years ago, the average contribution of labor growth, capital growth, technological progress and technical efficiency were 17.04%, 32.99%, 69.06% and -19.09%, technological progress became the core power of productivity growth, the relative efficiency of leading-edge technology led to changes in the average productivity of China's automobile industry Dropped 19.09 percentage points. In 1998-2006 K/L rate rised from 203,000 yuan per person to 522,000 yuan per person, capital deepening phenomenon is obvious. The automotive industry average labor and capital output flexibility, technological progress rates are all positive. Labor input, capital input and the technical progress make a positive effect to economic growth in China's automobile industry.(3) Based on time-varying stochastic frontier production function measured results of the policy recommendations: According to the results of the technological progress contribution, combined with status of R&D and independent innovation, we suggest that we should improve the technology strategy, increase R&D investment, nurture our own brands to optimize the growth of China's automobile industry; According to the results of the technical efficiency change contribution, combined with status of industrial concentration, we suggest that we should restructuring to improve technical efficiency and industrial concentration, strengthen monopoly; According to the mild extensive stage, combined with international auto mergers and acquisitions background, we suggest that we should speed up industrial restructuring and optimize the industrial structure; According to the results of the contribution of labor and capital, combined with capital deepening, we suggest that we should increase the quality of workers and improve the capital structure.