Based On Cash Flow Manufacturing Enterprises In Financial Early Warning Research

China has a reputation of "world factory". As an important foundation for China's social and economic development the manufacturing sector is the major demonstration of urban employment and international competitiveness. Under the complex and volatile international economic environment, China's manufacturing listed companies are also facing enormous challenges. Since last year, some domestic manufacturing enterprises have clearly felt the pressure of survival:the world economic downturn, the sharp drop in demand for exports, the rise of an important raw material prices, rising cost of labor forces, an emergence of trade frictions and protectionism, and so on. All the above factors affect the development of the manufacturing sector which we takes pride in. Business crisis, to some extent, is reflected by the gradual deterioration of the financial situation of any business; any enterprise in financial crisis will experience a process from quantitative change to qualitative change. Therefore that how can the manufacturing enterprises find the financial crisis early in order to take appropriate measures to establish an effective corporate financial crisis forecast to eliminate the financial crisis has become the practical problem for the manufacturing listed companies to be resolved.Manufacturing listed companies in China as research subject, this thesis selects manufacturing listed companies that gained profit for three consecutive years from2006to2010and was at a loss in the fourth year the study samples and selected48normal financial companies as paired samples at the ratio of1:1. It is requested that paired samples are those companies that gained profit for four consecutive years between2006and2010and had similar asset size and the industrial and financial crisis. The reason for this choice is to eliminate the effect on the enterprises in financial crisis by macro-economic changes in order to eliminate the enterprise into a financial crisis, and improve accuracy of forecast model.In terms of the variable index, scholars at home and abroad mostly use the financial index system on an accrual basis instead of cash flow indicators for the financial forecast research. Such financial forecast research result with the use of cash flow indicators is less. The cash flow statement is based on cash; the cash flow indicators can reflect the genuine financial situation. This thesis is to build cash flow indicator system from the four aspects of the existing capacity, solvency, development and cash structure. It is based on the audited financial statements data in external reporting of the sample companies and use factor analysis and multiple logistic regression analysis (logistic) for building the financial crisis forecast model on the basis of cash flow indicators.Finally, the thesis uses the model to carry out the retrospective test and predictive test, the result shows that the forecast model with the use of cash flow indicators has a good value for early warning.An innovation of this article is that this thesis makes a breakthrough in research standard. The former scholars takes ST companies in financial crisis as the research standard, but this thesis makes a in-depth study into the corporate financial crisis from another angle; the research into the manufacturing list companies with the use of cash flow indicators overcome the limitation of the traditional research without any industry category and indicators, selects the crisis samples of the manufacturing listed companies with the negative net profit in the same year, and has certain requirements in choosing paired samples in order to get rid of effectively the effect on corporate finance by macro-economic change.