Project Economic Evaluation Risk Element Transmission Model And Its Application

The main research of this paper is one aspect of the chief studies of the National Natural Science Foundation project as "General project risk element transmission theory model and its application".This paper put an emphasis on economic evaluation based on risk element transmission theory.Firstly,this paper explains the risk element transmission theory,and then this paper proposes a project economic evaluation model based on risk element transmission theory.And then theoretical research is done on project economic index such as the net present value,internal rate of return,cost-effective evaluation and net profit.And analytical method and simulate method are used to analyze the risk distribution of the net profit.Risk element transmission analytical method is used to analyse the risk distribution of the total benefit of hydro-electric power project.This paper also designs and develops a software based on the project economic evaluation risk element transmission theory.Two examples are used to validate the correctness,reliability and operability of the model.