Study On The Balance Of Supply And Demand, And The Technology Route Of Xinjiang Coal Industry Development

This thesis studies the issue of coal supply-demand, technology route and policies in Xinjiang.On the base, the thesis appreciates the restricted factors and potentialities of Xinjiang coal industrydevelopment, furthermore, works out relative forecast and optimized balance analysis of coaldemand, utilization layout, and optimized supply on the condition of water resource and energylogistics in Xinjiang. By the basis of Elastic Coefficient Method, Industrial Branch AnalyzingMethod, Linear Regression and Monte Carlo are used in the analysis to predict the coal demandlevel under different possible situations in Xinjiang. The rationality of different demand quantitypredicted is judged by the bearing capacity of Xinjiang’ water resource; by the model of multipleobjective programming, the scale of coal optimized supply in Xinjiang is calculated.The presentthesis applies the model of system dynamics to analyze the coal industry in Xinjiang, and furtherdeduces the optimal policy approach, which is appropriate for the system development of Xinjiangcoal industry from the perspectives of economic development, coal utilization efficiency,environment protection, social factors and so on. Finally, according to the equilibrium of coalsupply-demand and the important industry policies, the technology route and measures of coalindustry development in Xinjiang are suggested under the researching of various perspectives ofcoal resource exploitation and technology, industry management and institution, industry layoutand logistics, production safety, water resource, economic and social factors, etc.