Study On Cultivated Land Resource Early-warning Of Sichuan Province

Cultivated land resource is the most precious material base on which the human depend to survive and develop. It is also one kind of the scarcest resource. Because each kind of construction taking, the disaster destruction and the improper farming, cultivated land quantity in our country has been few more and more and the quality drops day by day. Continuously for a long time, China's food security and economic and social development will be certainly endangered. Therefore, study cultivated land resource early-warning is significant to strengthen cultivated land management, ensure China's food security, promote cultivated land resource sustainable use and economic and social sustainable development.Based on the theories of land scarcity, sustainable land use and man-land relationship as the instruction, the cultivated land early warning theories were expounded and the cultivated land alarming, alert source, alert sign and alert degree of Sichuan Province were analyzed. The grey related theory was applied to the analysis of main influence factors of unit area grain yield in Sichuan Province. The plants duplicate indexes of Sichuan Province were forecasted by regression model. A logarithm demand function was modeled to forecast the total grain consumption in Sichuan Province. The total population quantity, the grain per unit area yield, the proportion of grain sown area to the crops and the cultivated land area were forecasted by GM( 1,1 )model. The cultivated least area in Sichuan Province of 2004~2015year were forecasted by using the early-warning model. The pressure indexes were calculated and the alert degree were forecasted, then the corresponding proposals were put forward.Through analysis, some basic conclusions were drawn.