Forecast Algorithmic For Port Logistic Demand Research Based On Combination Model

Developing the modern logistics of the port is an irreversible trend for the improvement of city economy, and port logistic planning has became fairy critical for the modern logistics'development of a port city. The key part of port logistic demand research is how to improve the forecast precision, which directly influenced the scientific and rationality of the port logistic planning.First of all, via the basic theory of port logistic demand, including the base concept, demand analysis of port logistics, the characteristic of port logistic demand forecast and so on. There was a strong correlation between port logistic demand and urban economy, and Logistic scale and structure was jointly decided by economic scale and industrial structure.Secondly, by analysis of influence factors and current logistic statistic situation of our country, port logistic demand forecast index system has been established. The logistic demand was greatly reflected by logistic index and economic index. The intrinsic attribute of port logistic demand was revealed by forecasting logistic demand by using hinterland economy indices instead of the time series data of logistic scale volume itself.Thirdly, Rather than the traditional single model, the optimality combination model for port logistic demand has been proved more precise, which was set up on the basis of GM(1,1) model and BP neural network model.At last, the relativity between forecast index and port logistic demand of Fuzhou port has been analyzed, and the logistic demand for Fuzhou port was forecasted by using qualitative forecast and quantitative forecast approach. The handling capacity of cargo for Fuzhou port excess 14 million tons and the quantity of container was in excess of 3 million TEU. Then some advices have been made for Fuzhou port modern logistic development based on analyzing the current situation of Fuzhou port.