The Study On The Land Carrying Capacity And Its Changes Of Wuhan City Circle

The land is the indispensable material basis for human survival and development. However, with the explosion of the population, and the rapid expansion of industrialization and urbanization, the contradiction between supply and demand of land resourses becomes increasingly worse, which raises a series of complex issues.With the largest population in the world, the area of arable land is not coordinate with the population size, thus the relationship between people and land goes from bad to worse. Meanwhile there are some other problems such as the poor condition of the combination of soil and water, and limited potential production, the degradation of land resources, and the insufficient of the spare land resources and so on. Thus arouse wide concern in the world. Therefore, quantitative study on regional man-land relationship and scientific evaluation of land carrying capacity has the important theoretical and practical significance for implementing the scientific concept of development, building a "two-type society", promoting the harmonious of man-land relationship, and achieving sustainable development.In this paper we comprehensively analyzed the structure and variation of land use of Wuhan urban agglomeration and its internal municipal administrative division, by using data from statistical yearbook. Based on this method, the paper discussed the land carrying capacity of Wuhan city circle.Based on the changes of the total food output and per capita income caused by land use change, this paper analysed the land carrying capacity (including food bearing capacity and economy carrying capacity), combined with the actual situation of Wuhan city circle, on the basis of different nutritional and consumer standards, by using the method of regression analysis, gray system analysis. The analysis showed that the current land food carrying capacity is not overloaded, but the land economic carrying capacity overload phenomenon has appeared. More comprehensive study of the dynamic changes of the land carrying capacity of the Wuhan city circle has been done, through establishing relevant mathematical model, to predict the land carrying capacity change of Wuhan City Circle in2015. The results indicates that the food carrying capacity of the land has not yet but really close to saturation level, and the situation of land economic carrying capacity overload has not been upturned, but the overload population is on a decreasing trend.At last, this paper studied optimum distribution of the development and utilization of land resources. Starting from the benefits of economy, ecology and society of land, confirming restain factors, using Linear Programming, establish target function, scheme out structure optimization model. This model, by testing, have the edge of economic rationalization, ecological safety and social restraint, and is able to satify the demand of land carrying capacity, develop the resource superiority of Wuhan city circle, which have great significance in promoting the development of the whole city circle.