Comparative Study For Uncertain Decision-Making Standards

Uncertain decision-making is one of important research areas in the decision-making theory. For a long time five decision standards such as optimism decision standard, pessimism decision standard, compromised decision standard, equality decision standard and regret decision standard have been regarded as a model in all the available literatures.However, as decision-makers find it difficult to determine the probability of nature state, uncertain decision-making often depends on the experience of decision-makers, the capacity of analyzing and judging the future status and its boldness and precision, decision-making is very subjective. Therefore, this article sums up related researches at home and abroad and explains the shortcomings of classical standards, and also makes a more systematic study of Wald-G method(temporarily named) through the way of solving matrix game. The main work and research results are as follows:(1) Base on introducing the five decision standards and summing up six improvement methods of their predecessors, review the identity of the decision theory and game theory in some aspects.(2) It is found that, optimism decision standard is full of optimism for the future development, but it only takes the proceeds of the best programs into account, and too risky and needs to bear the risk of the corresponding loss as the price; compromised decision standard only cares two extremes of the best and worst, ignores all the other information provided by the gain function, and also its optimism coefficient is difficult to identify; equality decision standard assumes that the possibility of each state is equal but this assumption itself has a lot of subjectivity; regret decision standard considers to select the best program with the regret value from the worst condition, but after adding a new program to the original proposal, it will be no longer attractive; pessimism decision standard considers to select the optimal program from the worst point of view, which is suitable for those small-scale enterprises, with non-performing technology and equipment, without affording a larger economic risk, whose decision-makers lack confidence in the business of the future.(3) According to the way of the multi-objective planning, we introduce the results of game theory to decision-making theory, solve the problem of uncertainty decision-making with the idea of matrix game and put forwards a new type of uncertainty decision-making method- Wald-G method.In fact, in 1950 A. Wald explained the decision-making issue into matrix game through strict mathematical proof, and put forward decision standard used to answer the uncertainty decision-making with a saddle point; but as to uncertainty decision-making without saddle point, he did not do the further research. Based on this, the paper continues to adopt the way of matrix game thinking, regards Wald-G method as a general method to uncertainty decision-making.