Study Of The Relationship Between Carbon Emission And Economic Development In China

Since the 20th century, climate changes have been observed all around the world, including temperature, precipitation, and other major features. The general trends of climate changes are temperature increase, precipitation increase, and the frequent occurrences of extreme weather. In this urgent global climate situation, we are especially concerned about one of the major initiators CO₂. In December 2009 in the Danish capital Copenhagen, the World Climate Conference brought more issues about carbon emissions into its agenda. China is currently the world's largest emitter of CO₂, and of course under a great pressure from the trying of its emission reduction. If China response to this pressure and take measures to restrict the Chinese people's energy consumption, it is likely to affect China's positive economic development. However, there are still very few studies in-depth regarding the relationship between carbon emission and economic development in China at the present, even less of that in the provincial level.From the perspective of three industries, this thesis studies the relationship between China's CO₂ emissions and the proportions as well as output values of three industries. Firstly, Cluster analysis method is used to distinguish different regular patterns of CO₂ emission in different historical periods and under the different industrial policy. Then qualitative analysis is adopted to estimate the proportion of three industries impacts on the trend of CO₂/GDP (CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP). Finally, regression analysis is taken to explore the relationship between China's total CO₂ emissions and the output values of the three industries.From the perspective of each province's Carbon emissions, this thesis studies the relationship between each province's CO₂ emissions and the average real wage of workers on behalf of its level of economic development. At the same time, I take the judgement about whether they meet EKC respectively. According to the verification of EKC and other shape of the curve on a provincial level, the provinces are classified and their characteristics are compared. At last, conclusion is made on which provinces should be focused on when trying to reduce the carbon emissions in China.The main research findings obtained in this paper are as follows:(1) Using the carbon emissions' data and three industries' data after People's Republic of China was founded, the study period 1952-2004 is clustered into two separate ones: 1952-1984 and 1985-2004. It reveals the relationship between China's CO₂ emissions and three industries isn't consistent in different periods, under different national policies and economic development models. (2) Among three industries, the smaller the proportion of secondary industry and the greater those of primary and tertiary industry, the smaller of CO₂/GDP and total CO₂ emissions. The primary industry has stronger effect for the CO₂ emission reduction than the tertiary industry in the first stage; while in the second stage, the tertiary industry stronger. Totally, CO₂ emissions is much larger in the second stage than that in the first stage, and output value in each industry has less effect for the variation of CO₂ emissions in the second stage than that in the first stage.(3) The relationship between each province's per capita CO₂ emissions and its average real wage of workers does not meet the EKC hypothesis entirely, and there is no uniform function relation. If we sort the provinces in China according to their function models, they can be divided into three categories: linear function (linear type), quadratic function (U shape), Cubic function (inverted N shape).(4) At present, China and its provinces' CO₂ emissions and per capita emissions are during the ascent stage. It is expected that China's per capita CO₂ emissions will come down since its average real wage of workers increases to 18,808 RMB (at comparable price based on 1995's). Nevertheless, this won't happen automatically, and various efforts are absolutely necessary.(5) According to each province's total CO₂ emissions and per capita emissions, the conclusion is that China should focus its carbon emission reduction efforts on Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Liaoning, especially Jiangsu and Shandong. Other provinces should try to limit their CO₂ emissions to their original level.