The Research On Risk Evaluation And Prevention Of Real Estate Development Project

With our society's economic development and urbanization acceleration, people's housing demand grows sharply, which has enormously promoted the real estate development. But the real estate profession is also facing all sorts of risks. The property development project invests, the fund to recycle in a big way slowly, in entire life cycle different period faced with various risk. Therefore, carrying on the recognition and the analysis to the risk of property development project, and discovering the corresponding countermeasure to control risk, has great importance to reduce the property development project' risk and guarantee such investment' success.According to the procedure and the characteristic of property development, it can be divided into four stages: Policy-making stage, land-levying stage, construction phase and sales stage. Therefore, the real estate risk control research might be divided into four parts: The policy-making stage risk control research, the land-levying stage risk control research, the construction phase risk control studies and the sales stage risk control research. We construct risk control model for each stage respectively and research each stage' risk on such model and put forward the corresponding risk control measures based on the research. Because the risk characteristic of each stage is different, in accordance with each stage risk factor characteristic, the policy-making stage and the land-levying stage use the fuzzy quality synthetic evaluation construction model, while the construction phase and the sales stage use the systems dynamics construction model; and conducts the empirical study in policy-making stage, land-levying stage and the construction phase, whereas conducts the example research in sales stage.The policy-making stage mainly focuses on project's feasibility, selects the five kinds of risk factors including the policy risk, the management risk, the market risk, the technological risks and the social risks as the first-level index, selects 20 kinds of risk factors including the urban planning, the tax policy, the financial risk, the agrarian policy and the industrial policy, etc, constructs decision-making stage risk indicator system, and build the risk assessing model in policy making stage to conduct the empirical study.We choose policy risk, the financial risk, the relocation risk, the environment risk and a bid risk kind of risk factor as the first-level index in land-levying stage, and select 18 kinds of risk factors such as land risk, the environmental protection policy, the industrial policy and the urban planning as the second-level index; and construct land-levying stage risk indicator system, and conduct the empirical study.The construction phase involves many risk factors like the project quality, the personnel, the progress and the investment, according to the characteristic of construction phase, combining the systems dynamics theory, we construct property development project construction risk control model, which includes 32 variables in all, and use the model to conduct the empirical study a projectThe sales stage is mainly to sell the constructed commercial housing, which causes the fund to re-steam promptly, thus guarantee real estate company's fund chain in normal operation. By utilizing the systems dynamics theory and method, through thorough analysis of sale system's structure as well as the inner correlation of factors involved, we construct systematic dynamic model of property development project in sale stage. The model altogether includes 15 variables, including two state variables: the house quantity and the latent buying homes family. We conduct the example research by using the model, and carry on the sensitive analysis to the advertisement effect, the sales effect, the adequate and systematic service, he family having ability to purchase, and study such factors' impact on the sales risk.After the research of policy-making stage, land-levying stage, construction phase and sales stage four stage risk control, we propose the risk control Countermeasures based on it, and draw the conclusion and give some forecast.