Risk Assessment Of Commercial Real Estate Development Project Based On Fuzzy AHP

In recent years, with the development of national policy and market depth, the residential real estate has bid farewell to the rapid development stage of explosive growth, and as an important part of the real estate, the commercial real estate has became the transition area which property developers eager to. But compared with the developed countries in Europe and America, the commercial real estate of our country starts late, there exist problems such as blind construction, inaccurate positioning, unbalance in the late management. Therefore,under the condition of incomplete policy and related theory in China, conduct a study on the risk of commercial property development is the inevitable requirements that promote the prosperity in commercial property and ensure the stable development of economy.Stands on point of view of the commercial property developers, this paper analyze commercial property development project risk based on the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP). Firstly, construct the frame of commercial real estate development projects based on hierarchical holographic modeling(HHM), from the views of project participants, the loss of type, the life cycle, risk species, combined with the characteristics of commercial property development projects and risk, it gives a comprehensive analysis of project risk factors on commercial property development; secondly, by the experts scoring on the important degree of the index, through mathematical statistics, screening indicators, remove the substandard indicators, and build a commercial real estate development project risk evaluation index system, establish the ladder hierarchy, construct the judgment matrix, calculate each index weight; and then put forward the evaluation index of attribute values of dimensionless index type and consistent processing method, combined the analytic hierarchy process and the theory of fuzzy mathematics establish the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP);finally,analyze the establishment of risk evaluation index system and evaluation model through the sample of real commercial property investment project.It can get the well known of the risk factors in different steps of commercial property development through fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP), and it can help to raising the Risk cognitive level of commercial property developers, improve the risk decision ability; it also can help to improve the developer's risk control ability, and improve the system of risk control; and help developers using it consciously, to ensure the enterprise develop in healthy,steady and efficient. In this paper, it study the theory and method of commercial property investment project risk and applied it in real, the results show that it has certain flexibility andpracticability.