Study On The Risk Management Methods For Real Estate Project

Real estate project is a complicated system characterized by high investment input, high risk, long industrial chain and periodicity, many professions and connections involved. The decision making of real estate project depends mostly upon experience and qualitative analysis, lacking the professional and systematic guidance of risk management methods. The research on the internal rules and risk management methods is not enough from the government, academic institutions and enterprises. Therefore, it is very necessary to have a deep research on the risk management method of real estate project. The content of the dissertation is as follows:(1) Putting forward the 3D risk model of real estate project. The 3D risk model divides the real estate project into three aspects: 1 risk souces which may bring about risks to the project, which are to be included in the factor dimension; 2 every phase in which the actual risk occurs to the principal risk part, which are to be included in the time dimension; 3 the target influenced after project risk occurs, which are to be included in the target dimension. The relationship between the three dimensions has been elaborated.(2) It has been put forward that the structure of the value chain of the real estate project is made up of four basic activities and four supportive activities; the risk factors as the risk sources in the factor dimension effect the activities in the time dimension, which produces actual risks, this thought has been presented. Analysis has been made on the risk factor recourse.(3) The fuzzy group assessment method has been put forward. A new fuzzy group assessment method, which can not only fully respect the assessment information of experts but also doesn't require intersections of experts' assessment results suitable for evaluation consensus opinion, has been put forward. The weight of every evaluator is divided into two parts: the consensus opinion of the assessment result and the importance opinion of the evaluator. The process of forming concentrated intersection is explained and then the fuzzy group assessment is worked out according to the concentrated weight and evaluation results of experts.(4) A systematic dynamics model dealing with real estate project risk is set up, this model is made up of one strategic risk sub model and one tactical risk sub model. A dynamic emulation analysis of systematic dynamics model is made through cases. The dynamic analysis of real estate project risk includes two levels: firstly, when the risk source in factor dimension is changed, there should be risk control and reply in decision-making level; secondly, under the circumstances when the behavior of decision-making level is changed owing to the risk source in factor dimension, there should be risk control and reply from the project implementation level. The result demonstrates that through systematic dynamics model, intuitional and dynamic research can be made on risk effect and the adjustment effect of risk reply measures can be controlled.