Research Of Evaluation Index System For Railway Particularly Busy Lines Risk

The railway is artery of the national economy, and is China's social and economic development is of decisive significance of strategic industries. The railway incidents happen occasionally, people's lives and property of economic and bring immeasurable losses. China railway pass the development for many years, has been formed four vertical and two horizontal six trunk lines, the existing railway six trunk lines The world. Due to the important status of six trunk lines in Chinese railway transportation, the possibility of accidents and the harm is related to the leadership and technical personnel are most important.Based on thorough study abroad risk assessment on the basis of the theoretical results, this paper summarize main kinds of accidents happened in the six trunk lines over the past years of history, then through the actual investigation and expert questionnaire survey method, analyzed the influence of the main risk factors index of railway six trunk lines, puts forward four basic factors:the safety of comprehensive risk source, the ability of Prevention and Preparation, the ability of disposal and the ability of indemnification. Around these four factors, this paper establishes the evaluation index system, this system including 1 first level index,4 secondary level indexes, and 23 third level indexes.At the same time, based on thorough study abroad status and risk assessment methods, this paper use analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to indicate of risk assessment of quantitative analysis, then determine the specific weight of each index, thus pointed out the influence of each index in the evaluation index system. At last, this paper applied evaluation index system for railway six trunk lines to Beijing railway station and beijing-tianjin inter-city railway station, and compute the actual risk assessment. Through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, this paper calculates the Beijing railway station and beijing-tianjin inter-city railway station and found the existing risks and inadequate, then puts forward related Suggestions.