The Risk Evaluation Of Real Estate Investment Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

In China, after nearly a decade of rapid development of real estate, almost every second-tier and third-tier cities’ real estate industry environment has become degradation with the phenomena of housing price going down, a great quantity of commercial housing inventory, consumers holding a heavy wait-and-see mood, even" empty city", except the first-tier cities, which means real estate market in China has entered a new stage of development. Because real estate industry which is associated with other industries in a high degree, is a pillar industry with huge investment in China for present, it will cause the loss that would be inestimable, once happened. In the face of such realities, how to conduct an effective risk analysis and evaluation for the assurance of scientific investment has become problems needed to solve of the real estate investment subject.Firstly, after literature reviews, the paper studies the concept of risk management, general process of it, risk evaluation dimension, the characteristics of real estate investment carefully, and sum up the classification of existing real estate risk to build a real estate investment risk index system as the theoretical foundation.Secondly, after experts interviewing, this paper builds a real estate investment risk evaluation index system with the application of analytic hierarchy process. This index system concludes 5 criteria-layer factors, which are land risk, policy risk, supporting facilities risk, market risk, management risk, and 21 factors of index-layer.Thirdly, through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, this paper builds a model of real estate fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. This model contains four steps which are the determination of index set and evaluation set, the determination of index weight, membership matrix building, comprehensive evaluating.Finally, this paper makes the calculation based on the ATS project in Shenzhen, which verifies the model is scientific and practical with the project tracking and feedback.